Azure Power Global Limited (AZRE) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow

Azure Power Global Limited

AZRE (NYSE)

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Repository Valuation
Nathan Winklepleck, CFA
Azure Power Global Limited Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow

"""
    Model: Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow
    
    This model was built for Nathan Winklepleck (CFA)
    Nathan's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/NathanWinklepleckCFA
"""

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. 
The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out [Nathan's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/NathanWinklepleckCFA)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    # Set the Discount Rate to 10Y Treasury Yield + 4%
    "%discount_rate": data.get("treasury:year10") + 0.04,
    "%growth_in_perpetuity": data.get("treasury:year10"),
    "historical_years": 10,
    "projection_years": 10,
    "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
    "%operating_cash_flow_margin": None,
    "%capital_expenditure_margin": None,
})

data.compute({
    "index": -1,
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operatingMargin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

average_revenue_growth_rate = data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", average_revenue_growth_rate)

average_operating_cash_flow_margin = data.average(f"%operatingCashFlowMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_margin", average_operating_cash_flow_margin)

average_capital_expenditure_margin = data.average(f"%capitalExpenditureMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_margin", average_capital_expenditure_margin)

revenue_growth_decrease_rate = (assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate') - assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity")) / (assumptions.get("projection_years") - 1)

data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"""
        function:linear_regression:income:revenue 
        start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}
    """,
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

data.compute({
    "index": "1 + index:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": f"{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} - index * {revenue_growth_decrease_rate}",
    "income:revenue": "income:revenue:-1 * (1 + %revenueGrowthRate)",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_margin')}",
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_margin')}",
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow + computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "flow:capitalExpenditure": "flow:freeCashFlow - flow:operatingCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')}
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%freeCashFlowMargin": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculating the Terminal Value
# TV = FCF * (1 + Growth in Perpetuity) / (Discount Rate - Growth in Perpetuity)
terminal_value = \
    data.get(f"flow:freeCashFlow:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}") * \
    (1 + assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity")) / \
    (assumptions.get("%discount_rate") - assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity"))

# Discount the terminal value into the present
tv_discount_rate = (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get('projection_years')
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / tv_discount_rate

# Get the sum between current date and projection years
discounted_free_cash_flow_sum = data.sum("discountedFreeCashFlow:1->*")

# Add all Discounted FCFs and the Discounted Terminal Value to calculate the enterprise value
enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + discounted_free_cash_flow_sum

# Equity value is calculated by adding cash and subtracting total debt from the enterprise value
equity_value = enterprise_value + data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments") - \
               data.get("balance:totalDebt")

stock_value = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": '$'
})

model.render_results([
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_free_cash_flow_sum, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [enterprise_value, "Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndCashEquivalents"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "$"],
    [stock_value, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [average_operating_cash_flow_margin, "Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin", "%"],
    [average_capital_expenditure_margin, "Average Capital Expenditure Margin", "%"],
])

model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue Line",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "flow:capitalExpenditure",
            "linearRegressionRevenue",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
        "number_format": "M",
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Forecast table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Operating Cash Flow Margin",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "Capital Expenditure Margin",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowMargin": "Free Cash Flow Margin",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": 1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Historical table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operatingMargin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Cash from Operating Activities Margin",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `10 Year Treasury Note Yield` + `4%`
    """,

"%growth_in_perpetuity": r"""
        ## Growth in Perpetuity
        
        The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_margin": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow Margin
        
        `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin`
        
        This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_margin": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure Margin
        
        `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin`
        
        This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out Nathan's YouTube Channel

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `10 Year Treasury Note Yield` + `4%`	%
Growth In Perpetuity Growth In Perpetuity Growth in Perpetuity The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
Historical Years Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin` This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.	%
Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin` This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.	%

Results
Terminal Value	-109 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value	-49.31 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	-21.47 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value	-70.78 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	115 Mil. USD
Total Debt	1.66 Bil. USD
Equity Value	-72.32 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	48.25 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share	-1.5 Thou. USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin	16.27%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin	-273.2%

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD

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"2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": -2977808742}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": -3485723654}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": -3931586439}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": -4266776025}, {"l": "2031", "x": "2031-03-31", "y": -4448540684}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Linear Regression Revenue Line", "mappingKey": "linearRegressionRevenue", "data": [{"l": "2014", "x": "2014-03-31", "y": -6386590}, {"l": "2015", "x": "2015-03-31", "y": 23218317}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 52823225}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 82428134}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 112033042}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 141637950}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 171242858}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 200847766}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 230452674}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 260057583}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 289662491}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 319267399}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 348872307}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 378477215}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 408082123}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 437687032}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 467291940}, {"l": "2031", "x": "2031-03-31", "y": 496896848}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Discounted Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "discountedFreeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2014", "x": "2014-03-31", "y": -6691715}, {"l": "2015", "x": "2015-03-31", "y": -138045877}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": -126221831}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": -238236118}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": -273637158}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": -344472870}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": -194883220}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": -190405894}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": -762628210}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": -1055358812}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": -1415435512}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": -1837990194}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": -2308291041}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": -2598639236}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": -2809180782}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": -2926756158}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": -2933935323}, {"l": "2031", "x": "2031-03-31", "y": -2825532022}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2022-03-31": 9, "2023-03-31": 10, "2024-03-31": 11, "2025-03-31": 12, "2026-03-31": 13, "2027-03-31": 14, "2028-03-31": 15, "2029-03-31": 16, "2030-03-31": 17, "2031-03-31": 18}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2022-03-31	2023-03-31	2024-03-31	2025-03-31	2026-03-31	2027-03-31	2028-03-31	2029-03-31	2030-03-31	2031-03-31

↳ Growth Rate

Forecast Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2022 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2025 Mar 31	2026 Mar 31	2027 Mar 31	2028 Mar 31	2029 Mar 31	2030 Mar 31	2031 Mar 31
Revenue	296.8	410.8	550.9	715.4	898.4	1,090	1,276	1,439	1,562	1,628
Revenue Growth Rate	42.65%	38.38%	34.12%	29.85%	25.59%	21.32%	17.06%	12.79%	8.53%	4.26%
Operating Cash Flow	48.29	66.83	89.63	116.4	146.2	177.3	207.6	234.1	254.1	264.9
Operating Cash Flow Margin	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%	16.27%
Capital Expenditure	-810.9	-1,122	-1,505	-1,954	-2,454	-2,978	-3,486	-3,932	-4,267	-4,449
Capital Expenditure Margin	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%	-273.2%
Free Cash Flow	-762.6	-1,055	-1,415	-1,838	-2,308	-2,800	-3,278	-3,697	-4,013	-4,184
Free Cash Flow Margin	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%	-256.9%
Compounded Discount Rate	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.77%	16.69%	26.33%	36.77%	48.06%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	-762.6	-1,055	-1,415	-1,838	-2,308	-2,599	-2,809	-2,927	-2,934	-2,826

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Apr 21	2021 Mar 31	2020 Mar 31	2019 Mar 31	2018 Mar 31	2017 Mar 31	2016 Mar 31	2015 Mar 31	2014 Mar 31
Revenue	107.3	188.1	208.1	172	142.8	118.2	64.46	39.6	18.01	14.7
Revenue Growth Rate	43.12%	-9.58%	21.01%	20.38%	20.84%	83.38%	62.77%	119.9%	22.5%	46.92%
Cost of Revenue	9.12	15.75	17.22	15.21	12.5	10.62	5.79	2.87	1.28	0.876
Gross Profit	98.21	172.4	190.9	156.7	130.3	107.6	58.67	36.73	16.73	13.83
Gross Margin	91.94%	91.63%	91.72%	91.16%	91.25%	91.01%	91.02%	92.74%	92.9%	94.04%
Operating Income	56.96	122.1	106.1	86.49	80.68	60.46	30.26	16.21	4.74	5.69
Operating Margin	47.41%	64.88%	50.98%	50.3%	56.48%	51.15%	46.94%	40.93%	26.33%	38.71%
Net Income	-22.76	-32.22	-57.37	-31.01	1.13	-12.6	-18.07	-24.88	-17.35	-12.48
Net Margin	-38.3%	-17.12%	-27.57%	-18.04%	0.79%	-10.66%	-28.03%	-62.84%	-96.34%	-84.93%
Cash from Operating Activities	26.86	58.84	67.97	48.81	30.45	28.23	-0.419	11.07	-2.83	-0.39
Cash from Operating Activities Margin	16.27%	31.27%	32.67%	28.38%	21.32%	23.88%	-0.65%	27.94%	-15.72%	-2.66%
Capital Expenditure	-223	-311.2	-258.4	-243.7	-374.9	-301.9	-237.8	-137.3	-135.2	-6.3
Free Cash Flow	-196.1	-252.3	-190.4	-194.9	-344.5	-273.6	-238.2	-126.2	-138	-6.69

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD