BP p.l.c. (BP) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
BP p.l.c.
BP (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 29.1 USD

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#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value -23.92 USD
Book value of equity invested 22.14 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -3.75 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.403 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 21.84 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.34 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -42.31 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -56.94 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.12%
Terminal year's excess return -0.934 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 1.84%
Average historical Payout Ratio 439.8%
Payout Ratio in stable stage -143.1%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 39.59 21.69 21.69 20.8 20.39 20.43 20.91
Ending Book Value 21.69 22.14 20.8 20.39 20.43 20.91 21.84
EPS 0.14 -0.428 0.4 0.383 0.376 0.377 0.385
Return on Equity 0.542% -2.02% 1.84% 1.84% 1.84% 1.84% 1.84%
Dividend per Share 1.82 1.9 1.29 0.792 0.339 -0.1 -0.551
Payout Ratio 1,300% -443.5% 323.2% 206.6% 90.07% -26.51% -143.1%
Retained Earnings -1.68 -2.33 -0.893 -0.409 0.037 0.476 0.937
Equity Cost 2.42 1.33 1.33 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.28
Cost of Equity 6.12% 6.12% 6.12% 6.12% 6.12% 6.12% 6.12%
Excess Return -2.28 -1.76 -0.928 -0.89 -0.872 -0.874 -0.894
Discounted Excess Return
-0.875 -0.79 -0.73 -0.689 -0.665

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 939.5 -1,195 381 15,239 -1,357 7,565 -20,729 4,026 9,383 3,389 115 -6,482
Total Stockholders Equity 80,987 58,215 59,246 70,283 67,553 75,463 71,250 98,412 99,444 98,491 95,286 97,216
Return on Equity 1.84% -2.02% 0.542% 22.56% -1.8% 10.62% -21.06% 4.05% 9.53% 3.56% 0.118% -5.82%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 4,120 4,996 4,970 2,964 2,601 2,597 3,802 4,990 4,833 4,687 4,480 4,397
Payout Ratio 439.8% -443.5% 1,300% 19.44% -193% 34.31% -18.34% 124.2% 51.49% 138.4% 3,893% -67.8%
Shares Outstanding 2,070 2,630 2,731 1,775 1,899 2,013 2,022 2,028 1,997 1,969 1,874 1,832
Earnings per Share 0.548 -0.428 0.14 8.59 -0.71 3.76 -10.25 1.98 4.7 1.72 0.061 -3.54
Dividend per Share 2.0 1.9 1.82 1.67 1.37 1.29 1.88 2.46 2.42 2.38 2.39 2.4
Dividend Growth Rate -0.765% 4.4% 8.98% 21.9% 6.2% -31.38% -23.58% 1.65% 1.68% -0.418% -0.417% 2.56%
Book Value 40.36 22.14 21.69 39.59 35.58 37.49 35.24 48.52 49.8 50.01 50.83 53.06
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Discounting Cash Flows

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