Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.
HRTG (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 7.25 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 3.32 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 1.44 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 4.75 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 560.4 Mil. USD
Total Debt 101.7 Mil. USD
Equity Value 5.21 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 30.89 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 168.7 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.13%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 15.26%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -0.638%

Monetary values are in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

amounts of USD except for #

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Revenue 928.3 1,045 1,165 1,287 1,408 1,526 1,637 1,739 1,829 1,905
Revenue Growth Rate 13.62% 12.57% 11.51% 10.46% 9.4% 8.35% 7.29% 6.24% 5.18% 4.13%
Operating Cash Flow 141.7 159.5 177.8 196.4 214.9 232.8 249.8 265.4 279.1 290.6
Operating Cash Flow Margin 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26% 15.26%
Capital Expenditure -5.92 -6.67 -7.43 -8.21 -8.98 -9.73 -10.44 -11.09 -11.67 -12.15
Capital Expenditure Margin -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638% -0.638%
Free Cash Flow 135.7 152.8 170.4 188.2 205.9 223.1 239.3 254.3 267.5 278.5
Free Cash Flow Margin 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62% 14.62%
Compounded Discount Rate 1.05% 9.27% 18.15% 27.79% 38.18% 49.41% 61.56% 74.73% 88.94% 104.3%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 134.3 139.8 144.2 147.3 149 149.3 148.1 145.5 141.6 136.3

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Revenue 592.2 842.3 817 735.5 662.5 631.6 593.4 511.3 480.2 406.6 439 394.8
Revenue Growth Rate 13.62% 3.1% 11.08% 11.03% 4.89% 6.43% 16.05% 6.48% 18.09% -7.37% 11.19% 68.84%
Cost of Revenue 575.9 685.6 638.2 593.7 657.5 573.3 501.7 381.2 0 0 0 0
Gross Profit 216.3 52.67 178.7 141.8 4.99 58.22 91.72 130.1 480.2 406.6 439 394.8
Gross Margin 45.3% 6.25% 21.88% 19.27% 0.754% 9.22% 15.46% 25.45% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Operating Income 42.07 211.5 82.68 52.01 -166.2 -76.03 2.21 41 59.01 49.53 56.77 150.3
Operating Margin 8.09% 25.11% 10.12% 7.07% -25.08% -12.04% 0.373% 8.02% 12.29% 12.18% 12.93% 38.07%
Net Income 19.76 149.2 61.54 45.31 -154.4 -74.73 9.33 28.64 27.16 -1.12 33.87 92.51
Net Margin 3.64% 17.72% 7.53% 6.16% -23.3% -11.83% 1.57% 5.6% 5.66% -0.275% 7.71% 23.43%
Cash from Operating Activities 83.42 112.4 87.09 70.42 -34.26 60.13 170.2 119.7 95.43 7.57 75.13 153.9
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 15.26% 13.34% 10.66% 9.57% -5.17% 9.52% 28.68% 23.4% 19.87% 1.86% 17.12% 38.97%
Capital Expenditure -4.12 -2.56 -8.23 -9.89 -12.38 -1.01 -0.755 -4.98 -2.28 -0.385 -1.62 -1.17
Free Cash Flow 79.3 109.8 78.86 60.52 -46.64 59.12 169.5 114.7 93.15 7.18 73.51 152.7
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Discounting Cash Flows

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