Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
STLD
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 62.84 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 28.6 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 13.08 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 41.68 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 770.4 Mil. USD
Total Debt 3.78 Bil. USD
Equity Value 38.67 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 146.9 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 263.2 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.19%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 12.53%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -5.5%

Monetary values are in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

amounts of USD except for #

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Revenue 19,246 20,998 22,782 24,577 26,362 28,114 29,811 31,426 32,936 34,316
Revenue Growth Rate 9.72% 9.11% 8.49% 7.88% 7.26% 6.65% 6.03% 5.42% 4.81% 4.19%
Operating Cash Flow 2,411 2,631 2,855 3,079 3,303 3,523 3,735 3,938 4,127 4,300
Operating Cash Flow Margin 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53% 12.53%
Capital Expenditure -1,059 -1,155 -1,253 -1,352 -1,450 -1,546 -1,640 -1,728 -1,811 -1,887
Capital Expenditure Margin -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5%
Free Cash Flow 1,353 1,476 1,602 1,728 1,853 1,976 2,096 2,209 2,315 2,412
Free Cash Flow Margin 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03% 7.03%
Compounded Discount Rate 0.389% 8.61% 17.51% 27.16% 37.57% 48.84% 61.03% 74.25% 88.53% 104%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 1,348 1,359 1,363 1,359 1,347 1,328 1,301 1,268 1,228 1,183

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Revenue 13,767 17,635 17,540 18,795 22,261 18,409 9,601 10,465 11,822 9,539 7,777 7,594
Revenue Growth Rate 9.72% 0.538% -6.68% -15.57% 20.92% 91.73% -8.25% -11.48% 23.93% 22.65% 2.41% -13.27%
Cost of Revenue 11,080 15,337 14,738 14,749 16,143 13,046 8,167 8,934 9,499 7,957 6,442 6,863
Gross Profit 2,688 2,298 2,803 4,046 6,118 5,362 1,435 1,531 2,323 1,582 1,335 731.7
Gross Margin 18.16% 13.03% 15.98% 21.53% 27.48% 29.13% 14.94% 14.63% 19.65% 16.59% 17.16% 9.63%
Operating Income 1,924 1,403 1,943 3,151 5,092 4,301 847.1 986.9 1,722 1,067 728 -72.78
Operating Margin 12.22% 7.96% 11.08% 16.77% 22.87% 23.36% 8.82% 9.43% 14.57% 11.18% 9.36% -0.958%
Net Income 1,431 1,127 1,537 2,451 3,863 3,214 550.8 671.1 1,258 812.7 382.1 -130.3
Net Margin 8.87% 6.39% 8.76% 13.04% 17.35% 17.46% 5.74% 6.41% 10.64% 8.52% 4.91% -1.72%
Cash from Operating Activities 1,817 1,524 1,845 3,520 4,460 2,204 987 1,396 1,415 739.6 852.8 1,038
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 12.53% 8.64% 10.52% 18.73% 20.04% 11.97% 10.28% 13.34% 11.97% 7.75% 10.97% 13.67%
Capital Expenditure -820.1 -1,213 -1,868 -1,658 -908.9 -1,006 -1,198 -451.9 -239.4 -164.9 -198.2 -114.5
Free Cash Flow 996.5 311 -23.5 1,862 3,552 1,198 -211 944.3 1,176 574.7 654.6 924
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Discounting Cash Flows

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