Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
1810.HK
Xiaomi Corporation
1810.HK (HKSE)

Estimated Value

HKD

Market Price HKD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 1,381 Bil. HKD
Discounted Terminal Value 624.5 Bil. HKD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 246.4 Bil. HKD
Enterprise Value 870.9 Bil. HKD
Cash and Equivalents 44.27 Bil. HKD
Total Debt 30.15 Bil. HKD
Equity Value 966.5 Bil. HKD
Shares Outstanding 25.91 Bil. HKD
Estimated Value per Share 37.31 HKD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 5.76%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -1.97%

Monetary values in HKD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in HKD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 480,102 581,980 693,138 810,833 931,323 1,049,974 1,161,481 1,260,207 1,340,608 1,397,718
Revenue Growth Rate 23.34% 21.22% 19.1% 16.98% 14.86% 12.74% 10.62% 8.5% 6.38% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 27,644 33,510 39,911 46,688 53,626 60,457 66,878 72,563 77,192 80,481
Operating Cash Flow Margin 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76% 5.76%
Capital Expenditure -9,444 -11,448 -13,634 -15,949 -18,319 -20,653 -22,846 -24,788 -26,370 -27,493
Capital Expenditure Margin -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97% -1.97%
Free Cash Flow 18,201 22,063 26,277 30,739 35,306 39,804 44,032 47,774 50,822 52,987
Free Cash Flow Margin 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79% 3.79%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.74% 16.64% 26.31% 36.74% 48.03% 60.26% 73.54% 87.87% 103.4%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 18,201 20,477 22,528 24,337 25,821 26,889 27,475 27,530 27,052 26,053

Monetary values in HKD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 22
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 265,851 502,271 389,251 298,013 316,898 402,802 292,015 230,251 199,159 137,561 76,393 79,753
Revenue Growth Rate 23.53% 29.04% 30.62% -5.96% -21.33% 37.94% 26.82% 15.61% 44.78% 80.07% -4.21% 25.46%
Cost of Revenue 219,307 390,614 307,806 234,801 263,059 331,322 248,364 198,311 173,891 119,375 68,301 76,530
Gross Profit 46,545 111,657 81,445 63,212 53,838 71,480 43,650 31,941 25,268 18,187 8,092 3,223
Gross Margin 15.31% 22.23% 20.92% 21.21% 16.99% 17.75% 14.95% 13.87% 12.69% 13.22% 10.59% 4.04%
Operating Income 17,629 47,137 26,066 22,006 3,187 31,935 28,546 13,155 1,362 14,660 4,225 1,639
Operating Margin 6.07% 9.38% 6.7% 7.38% 1.01% 7.93% 9.78% 5.71% 0.684% 10.66% 5.53% 2.05%
Net Income 10,004 49,319 25,168 19,219 2,800 23,727 24,176 11,235 15,432 -52,596 617.6 -9,050
Net Margin 0.149% 9.82% 6.47% 6.45% 0.883% 5.89% 8.28% 4.88% 7.75% -38.23% 0.808% -11.35%
Cash from Operating Activities 19,862 72,455 41,803 45,422 -4,967 12,006 25,985 26,634 -1,611 -1,195 5,058 -3,105
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 5.76% 14.43% 10.74% 15.24% -1.57% 2.98% 8.9% 11.57% -0.809% -0.869% 6.62% -3.89%
Capital Expenditure -4,619 -2,571 -7,763 -6,895 -6,563 -8,796 -3,593 -3,809 -4,310 -1,461 -2,039 -3,013
Free Cash Flow 15,243 69,884 34,040 38,528 -11,530 3,210 22,392 22,825 -5,921 -2,656 3,020 -6,119
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