Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988.HK) Simple Dividend Discount Model

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

9988.HK (HKSE)

Models
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Simple Dividend Discount Model

# Render description block
model.render_description({
    "data": r"""
## Simple Dividend Discount Model

This model estimates the value of companies that have reached maturity and pay stable dividends as a significant percentage of their **free cash flow to equity**, with no share buybacks or high growth expectancy.

### Fair Value Formulas

`Fair Value` = `Next Year's Expected Dividend` / (`
Discount Rate` - `Growth In Perpetuity`)

`Next year's expected dividend` = `Current Dividend per Share` * (1 + `Growth In Perpetuity`)

> This model was inspired by Prof. Aswath Damodaran's spreadsheet [⬇️ddmst.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ddmst.xls)

> Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's [Guide to Dividend Discount Models](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/valn2ed/ch13.pdf)
""",
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Assumptions
assumptions.set({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "#historicalYears": """
            3
        """,
        "#forecastYears": """
            5
        """,
        "#beta": """
            profile:beta
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": """
            treasury:year10
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": """
            risk:totalEquityRiskPremium
        """,
        "%discountRate": """
            assumption:%riskFreeRate + assumption:#beta * assumption:%equityRiskPremium
        """,
        "%growthInPerpetuity": """
            2.5%
        """,
        "#expectedDividend": """
            dividend:adjDividend * (1 + assumption:%growthInPerpetuity)
        """,
    },
    "titles": {
        "#historicalYears": "Historical Years",
        "#forecastYears": "Forecast Years",
        "#beta": "Beta",
        "%riskFreeRate": "Risk Free Rate",
        "%equityRiskPremium": "Equity Risk Premium",
        "%discountRate": "Discount Rate",
        "%growthInPerpetuity": "Growth In Perpetuity",
        "#expectedDividend": "Expected Dividend",
    },
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive",
        "title": "Assumptions",
        "id": "component-2",
        "bindTo": None
    },
    "descriptions": {
        "#historicalYears": r"""
The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
        """,
        "#forecastYears": r"""
The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
        """,
        "#beta": r"""
Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": r"""
The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": r"""
The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.
        """,
        "%discountRate": r"""
`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        """,
        "%growthInPerpetuity": r"""
The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity.
        """,
        "#expectedDividend": r"""
The estimated annual dividend per share for the next year.
        """,
    },
    "hierarchies": [
        {
            "parent": "%discountRate",
            "children": [
                "#beta",
                "%riskFreeRate",
                "%equityRiskPremium",
            ]
        },
    ]
})

# --- Fair Value Calculation
data.compute_results({
    "#fairValue": """
        assumption:#expectedDividend / ( assumption:%discountRate - assumption:%growthInPerpetuity)
    """,
}, timeseries="annual")

model.render_results({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "dividend:adjDividend": {
            "label": "Current dividend per share",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "assumption:%growthInPerpetuity": {
            "label": "Growth In Perpetuity",
            "type": "%"
        },
        "assumption:#expectedDividend": {
            "label": "Next year's expected dividend",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "assumption:%discountRate": {
            "label": "Cost of Equity (Discount Rate)",
            "type": "%"
        },
        "result:#fairValue": {
            "label": "Fair Value",
            "type": "$"
        },
    },
    "properties": {
        "title": "Fair Value Calculation",
        "width": "responsive",
        "hidden_keys": []
    }
})

# --- Forecast Dividends
data.compute({
    "income:eps": """
        income:eps:-1 * (1 + assumption:%growthInPerpetuity)
    """,
    "dividend:adjDividend": """
        dividend:adjDividend:-1 * (1 + assumption:%growthInPerpetuity)
    """,
}, forecast=data.get("""
    assumption:#forecastYears
"""), timeseries="annual")

model.render_chart({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:eps": "Earnings per Share",
        "dividend:adjDividend": "Dividend per Share",
    },
    "start": -5,
    "end": data.get("""
        assumption:#forecastYears
    """),
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast Dividends",
        "include_ltm": True,
        "set_editable": [],
        "hidden_keys": [],
        "bar_keys": [],
        "width": "full"
    }
})

# --- Fair Value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": data.get("""
        result:#fairValue
    """, timeseries="annual"),
    "units": "$",
    "title": "Fair Value",
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive" 
    }
})

# Render description block
model.render_description({
    "data": r"""
## Understanding the Calculations

The **Free Cash Flow to Equity** represents the cash available to the common shareholders to be paid out as dividends or used for share buybacks.

`Free Cash Flow to Equity` = `Free Cash Flow to the Firm` + `Net Borrowing`

For the Dividend Discount Model to be appropriate, the FCFE payout ratio should represent a significant portion of FCFE, typically over 50%.

`FCFE Payout Ratio` = `Total Dividends Paid` / `Free Cash Flow to Equity`
""",
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- FCFE vs. Dividends
data.compute({
    "user:netBorrowing": """
        balance:totalDebt - balance:totalDebt:-1
    """,
    "user:freeCashFlowToEquity": """
        flow:freeCashFlow + user:netBorrowing
    """,
    "user:totalDividendsPaid": """
        dividend:adjDividend * income:weightedAverageShsOut
    """,
    "user:%fcfePayoutRatio": """
        user:totalDividendsPaid / user:freeCashFlowToEquity
    """,
}, forecast=0, timeseries="annual")

model.render_table({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow to the Firm",
        "user:netBorrowing": "Net Borrowing",
        "user:freeCashFlowToEquity": "Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)",
        "user:totalDividendsPaid": "Total Dividends Paid",
        "user:%fcfePayoutRatio": "FCFE Payout Ratio",
    },
    "start": data.get("""
        -assumption:#historicalYears
    """),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "FCFE vs. Dividends",
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "include_ltm": True,
        "display_averages": False,
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

Fair Value

HKD

Market Price HKD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Dividend Discount Model

This model estimates the value of companies that have reached maturity and pay stable dividends as a significant percentage of their free cash flow to equity, with no share buybacks or high growth expectancy.

Fair Value Formulas

Fair Value = Next Year's Expected Dividend / (Discount Rate - Growth In Perpetuity)

Next year's expected dividend = Current Dividend per Share * (1 + Growth In Perpetuity)

This model was inspired by Prof. Aswath Damodaran's spreadsheet ⬇️ddmst.xls

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Dividend Discount Models

Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Equity Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Forecast Years Forecast Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Growth In Perpetuity Growth In Perpetuity The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity.	%
Expected Dividend Expected Dividend The estimated annual dividend per share for the next year.	#

Fair Value Calculation
Current dividend per share	1.96 HKD
Growth In Perpetuity	2.5%
Next year's expected dividend	2.01 HKD
Cost of Equity (Discount Rate)	6.51%
Fair Value	50.15 HKD

Forecast Dividends

Monetary values in HKD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Forecast Dividends", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Earnings per Share", "mappingKey": "income:eps", "data": [{"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 8.24}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 3.54}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 3.95}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 4.28}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 7.45}, {"l": "LTM", "x": "2026-03-13", "y": 7.69}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 7.64}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 7.83}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 8.02}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 8.22}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 8.43}], "dataType": "#", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Dividend per Share", "mappingKey": "dividend:adjDividend", "data": [{"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 1.62}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 1.96}, {"l": "LTM", "x": "2026-03-13", "y": 1.96}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 2.01}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 2.06}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 2.11}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 2.16}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 2.22}], "dataType": "#", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {}, "properties": {"display_table": false}, "width": "full"}

Understanding the Calculations

The Free Cash Flow to Equity represents the cash available to the common shareholders to be paid out as dividends or used for share buybacks.

Free Cash Flow to Equity = Free Cash Flow to the Firm + Net Borrowing

For the Dividend Discount Model to be appropriate, the FCFE payout ratio should represent a significant portion of FCFE, typically over 50%.

FCFE Payout Ratio = Total Dividends Paid / Free Cash Flow to Equity

FCFE vs. Dividends

Monetary values in HKD amounts except #	LTM Mar 13	2025 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31
Free Cash Flow to the Firm	2,745	83,771	163,386	189,126
Net Borrowing	41,802	43,183	-715.5	5,430
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)	44,546	126,953	162,671	194,557
Total Dividends Paid	36,368	36,830	32,695
FCFE Payout Ratio	81.64%	29.01%	20.1%

Fair Value

HKD

Market Price HKD