Alibaba Group Holding Limited (9988.HK) Discounted Future Market Cap

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

9988.HK (HKSE)

Models
Alibaba Group Holding Limited Discounted Future Market Cap

# --- Assumptions
assumptions.set({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "#historicalYears": """
            3
        """,
        "#forecastYears": """
            5
        """,
        "#beta": """
            profile:beta
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": """
            treasury:year10
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": """
            risk:totalEquityRiskPremium
        """,
        "%discountRate": """
            assumption:%riskFreeRate + assumption:#beta * assumption:%equityRiskPremium
        """,
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": """
            ratio:priceEarningsRatio
        """,
    },
    "titles": {
        "#historicalYears": "Historical Years",
        "#forecastYears": "Forecast Years",
        "#beta": "Beta",
        "%riskFreeRate": "Risk Free Rate",
        "%equityRiskPremium": "Equity Risk Premium",
        "%discountRate": "Discount Rate",
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": "Price to Earnings Ratio",
    },
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive",
        "title": "Assumptions",
        "id": "component-1",
        "bindTo": None
    },
    "descriptions": {
        "#historicalYears": r"""
The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
        """,
        "#forecastYears": r"""
The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
        """,
        "#beta": r"""
Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": r"""
The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": r"""
The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.
        """,
        "%discountRate": r"""
`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        """,
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": r"""
Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
        """,
    },
    "hierarchies": [
        {
            "parent": "%discountRate",
            "children": [
                "#beta",
                "%riskFreeRate",
                "%equityRiskPremium",
            ]
        },
    ]
})

# Render description block
model.render_description({
    "data": r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the future market capitalization using the estimated P/E ratio, then discounting it to the present using an annual required rate of return (referred to as the discount rate).
""",
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Historical Averages
data.compute({
    "user:%revenueGrowthRate": """
        ( income:revenue / income:revenue:-1 ) - 1
    """,
    "user:%netIncomeMargin": """
        income:netIncome / income:revenue
    """,
    "user:%equityGrowthRate": """
        ( balance:totalStockholdersEquity / balance:totalStockholdersEquity:-1 ) - 1
    """,
}, forecast=0, timeseries="annual")

model.render_table({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "user:%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "user:%netIncomeMargin": "Net Income Margin",
        "user:%equityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "ratio:returnOnInvestedCapital": "Return On Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": data.get("""
        -assumption:#historicalYears
    """),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Averages",
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "include_ltm": True,
        "display_averages": True,
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Net Margin & Revenue Growth
assumptions.set({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": """
             function:average(start=-assumption:#historicalYears, end=0):user:%revenueGrowthRate 
            or if this > 25%:
            25%
        """,
        "%netIncomeMargin": """
             function:average(start=-assumption:#historicalYears, end=0):user:%netIncomeMargin 
            or if this > 100%:
            100%
            
        """,
    },
    "titles": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "%netIncomeMargin": "Net Income Margin",
    },
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive",
        "title": "Net Margin & Revenue Growth",
        "id": "component-5",
        "bindTo": None
    },
    "descriptions": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": r"""
The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
        """,
        "%netIncomeMargin": r"""
Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
        """,
    }
})

# --- Forecast
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": """
        income:revenue:-1 * (1 + assumption:%revenueGrowthRate)
    """,
    "income:netIncome": """
        income:revenue * assumption:%netIncomeMargin
    """,
}, forecast=data.get("""
    assumption:#forecastYears
"""), timeseries="annual")

model.render_chart({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -5,
    "end": data.get("""
        assumption:#forecastYears
    """),
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast",
        "include_ltm": False,
        "set_editable": ["income:revenue", "income:netIncome"],
        "hidden_keys": [],
        "bar_keys": [],
        "width": "full"
    }
})

# --- Estimated Future Values
data.compute({
    "user:%revenueGrowthRate": """
        ( income:revenue / income:revenue:-1 ) - 1
    """,
}, forecast=data.get("""
    assumption:#forecastYears
"""), timeseries="annual")

model.render_table({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "user:%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": 1,
    "end": data.get("""
        assumption:#forecastYears
    """),
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "include_ltm": False,
        "display_averages": False,
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Fair Value Calculation
data.compute_results({
    "estimatedMarketCapitalization": """
        assumption:#priceToEarningsRatio * income:netIncome:assumption:#forecastYears
    """,
    "discountedMarketCapitalization": """
        result:estimatedMarketCapitalization / (1 + assumption:%discountRate) ** assumption:#forecastYears
    """,
    "#equityValuePerShare": """
        result:discountedMarketCapitalization / income:weightedAverageShsOut
    """,
}, timeseries="annual")

model.render_results({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:netIncome:assumption:#forecastYears": {
            "label": "End Net Income",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "assumption:#priceToEarningsRatio": {
            "label": "* End Price to Earnings Ratio",
            "type": ""
        },
        "result:estimatedMarketCapitalization": {
            "label": "= End Market Capitalization",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "result:discountedMarketCapitalization": {
            "label": "Discounted Market Capitalization",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "income:weightedAverageShsOut": {
            "label": "/ Shares Outstanding",
            "type": ""
        },
        "result:#equityValuePerShare": {
            "label": "= Fair Value per Share",
            "type": "$"
        },
    },
    "properties": {
        "title": "Fair Value Calculation",
        "width": "responsive",
        "hidden_keys": []
    }
})

# --- Fair Value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": data.get("""
        result:#equityValuePerShare
    """, timeseries="annual"),
    "units": "$",
    "title": "Fair Value",
    "properties": {
        "width": "full" 
    }
})

Fair Value

HKD

Market Price HKD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Equity Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Forecast Years Forecast Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Earnings Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#

Discounted Future Market Cap

Historical Averages

Monetary values in HKD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 13	2025 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31
Revenue Growth Rate	2.37%	7.78%	4.74%	2.72%	-5.76%
Net Income Margin	10.53%	12.19%	13.06%	8.5%	8.38%
Equity Growth Rate	-0.85%	4.25%	1.28%	-5.49%	-3.43%
Return On Invested Capital	12.22%	9.47%	13.25%	13.87%	12.28%

Net Margin & Revenue Growth

Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%

Forecast

Monetary values in HKD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Forecast", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 850704754000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 1053190345200}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 992561766200}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 1019567294400}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 1067884714600}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 1093205386643, "oy": 1093205386643, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 1119126438506, "oy": 1119126438506, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 1145662105828, "oy": 1145662105828, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 1172826961788, "oy": 1172826961788, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 1200635925113, "oy": 1200635925113, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 178585508000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 76852615400}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 83161855800}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 86673749700}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 139450826200}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 115132594420, "oy": 115132594420, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -17.44, "og": -17.44}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 117862509574, "oy": 117862509574, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 120657153893, "oy": 120657153893, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 123518062174, "oy": 123518062174, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 126446805606, "oy": 126446805606, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 2.37, "og": 2.37}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-03-31": 20, "2027-03-31": 21, "2028-03-31": 22, "2029-03-31": 23, "2030-03-31": 24}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-03-31	2027-03-31	2028-03-31	2029-03-31	2030-03-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in HKD amounts except #	2026 Mar 31	2027 Mar 31	2028 Mar 31	2029 Mar 31	2030 Mar 31
Revenue	1,093,205	1,119,126	1,145,662	1,172,827	1,200,636
Revenue Growth Rate	2.37%	2.37%	2.37%	2.37%	2.37%
Net Income	115,133	117,863	120,657	123,518	126,447

Monetary values in HKD

amounts except #

2026
Mar 31

2027
Mar 31

2028
Mar 31

2029
Mar 31

2030
Mar 31

Revenue

1,093,205

1,119,126

1,145,662

1,172,827

1,200,636

Revenue Growth Rate

2.37%

Net Income

115,133

117,863

120,657

123,518

126,447

Fair Value Calculation
End Net Income	126.4 Bil. HKD
* End Price to Earnings Ratio	17.7
= End Market Capitalization	2,238 Bil. HKD
Discounted Market Capitalization	1,633 Bil. HKD
/ Shares Outstanding	18.55 Bil.
= Fair Value per Share	88.01 HKD

Fair Value

HKD