Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR-PC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
ABR-PC
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
ABR-PC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Stable Return On Equity

Stable Return on Equity

The stable Return On Equity (ROE) estimated after the last projected period.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 15.65 USD
Book value of equity invested 15.47 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 0.075 USD
Terminal stage EPS 1.72 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 13.26 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.7 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 0.105 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 0.193 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 12.83%
Terminal year's excess return 0.02 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 12.98%
Average historical Payout Ratio 198.6%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 80.74%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.29%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2024
Dec 31
LTM
Feb 02
2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
Beginning Book Value 16.89 16.03 16.03 14.47 13.5 13.01 12.94
Ending Book Value 16.03 15.47 14.47 13.5 13.01 12.94 13.26
EPS 1.18 0.8 2.08 1.88 1.75 1.69 1.68
Return on Equity 8.49% 6.08% 12.98% 12.98% 12.98% 12.98% 12.98%
Dividend per Share
2.12 3.64 2.84 2.24 1.76 1.36
Payout Ratio 175% 265% 175% 151.4% 127.9% 104.3% 80.74%
Retained Earnings
-1.32 -1.56 -0.966 -0.488 -0.073 0.323
Equity Cost 2.17 2.06 2.06 1.86 1.73 1.67 1.66
Cost of Equity 12.83% 12.83% 12.83% 12.83% 12.83% 12.83% 12.83%
Excess Return -0.987 -1.26 0.024 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.019
Discounted Excess Return
0.021 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.011

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 02
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Net Income 188.9 183.7 264.6 371.4 325.8 339.3 170.9 128.6 115.9 73.39 50.35 53.43
Total Stockholders Equity 1,797 2,997 3,024 3,118 2,937 2,418 1,344 1,185 895.2 695.8 587.1 565.1
Return on Equity 12.98% 6.08% 8.49% 12.65% 13.47% 25.24% 14.43% 14.37% 16.65% 12.5% 8.91% 9.98%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 191 410.7
241.3 196.8 148.8 122.7 108.8 107.8
Payout Ratio 190% 265% 175% 175% 175% 175% 147.2% 163.1% 137.7% 186% 255.4% 235.6%
Shares Outstanding 118.8 193.7 188.7 184.6 165.4 137.8 113.8 92.85 70.21 57.89 51.31 50.86
Earnings per Share 1.36 0.8 1.18 1.79 1.72 2.3 1.44 1.3 1.54 1.14 0.83 0.9
Dividend per Share 2.12 2.12
2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12
Dividend Growth Rate
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Book Value 14.14 15.47 16.03 16.89 17.76 17.54 11.81 12.76 12.75 12.02 11.44 11.11
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Discounting Cash Flows

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