AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value -956,225,822 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value -432,394,578 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow -5,280,513 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value -437,675,091 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 450 Mil. USD
Total Debt 0 USD
Equity Value -437,675,091 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 1.09 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share -401.8 Mil. USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin -1,142%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin 5,457%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31 2035-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
2035
Dec 31
Revenue -22,179 226,123 -1,987,741 14,681,054 -87,808,363 401,840,336 -1,274,476,811 2,251,830,594 -815,462,919 -850,201,640
Revenue Growth Rate -1,260% -1,120% -979.1% -838.6% -698.1% -557.6% -417.2% -276.7% -136.2% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 253,286 -2,582,323 22,699,997 -167,657,636 1,002,771,500 -4,589,016,641 14,554,525,178 -25,715,905,386 9,312,586,537 9,709,302,724
Operating Cash Flow Margin -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142% -1,142%
Capital Expenditure -1,210,319 12,339,524 -108,471,000 801,145,115 -4,791,702,342 21,928,427,153 -69,548,199,558 122,882,395,526 -44,499,811,500 -46,395,503,470
Capital Expenditure Margin 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457% 5,457%
Free Cash Flow -957,032 9,757,201 -85,771,004 633,487,479 -3,788,930,842 17,339,410,512 -54,993,674,380 97,166,490,140 -35,187,224,963 -36,686,200,746
Free Cash Flow Margin 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315% 4,315%
Compounded Discount Rate 7.51% 16.39% 26.03% 36.44% 47.71% 59.91% 73.16% 87.46% 102.9% 119.7%
Discounted Free Cash Flow -890,185 8,383,224 -68,055,596 464,294,314 -2,565,098,140 10,843,103,750 -31,759,200,917 51,832,877,757 -17,338,271,567 -16,697,655,585

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 01
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Revenue 1,850 1,919 1,912 4,876 1,006 3,304 2,414 341 1,082 1,920 1,591 -11
Revenue Growth Rate -1,259% 0.366% -60.79% 384.7% -69.55% 36.87% 607.9% -68.48% -43.65% 20.68% -14,560% -101.2%
Cost of Revenue 5.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 6 4
Gross Profit 1,845 1,919 1,912 4,876 1,006 3,304 2,414 341 1,082 1,870 1,585 -15
Gross Margin 103% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97.4% 99.62% 136.4%
Operating Income 2,068 4,525 4,518 3,881 2,588 -565 824 554 2,837 1,302 1,295 987
Operating Margin -688.5% 235.8% 236.3% 79.59% 257.3% -17.1% 34.13% 162.5% 262.2% 67.81% 81.4% -8,973%
Net Income 532.9 1,670 1,670 863 155 -1,190 749 -266 688 129 771 623
Net Margin -492.8% 87.02% 87.34% 17.7% 15.41% -36.02% 31.03% -78.01% 63.59% 6.72% 48.46% -5,664%
Cash from Operating Activities 977.7 604
86 -118 1,013 1,540 1,747 1,180 1,113 1,260 1,352
Cash from Operating Activities Margin -1,142% 31.47%
1.76% -11.73% 30.66% 63.79% 512.3% 109.1% 57.97% 79.2% -12,290%
Capital Expenditure -600.3 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6,003
Free Cash Flow 377.4 604
86 -118 1,013 1,540 1,747 1,180 1,113 1,260 -4,651
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Discounting Cash Flows

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