AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 4.08 USD
Book value of equity invested 11.38 USD
Next year's estimated book value 10.82 USD
Present value of future excess returns -7.29 USD
Excess Return per share -0.567 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 10.27%
Average historical Return on Equity 4.9%
Average historical Payout Ratio 399.6%
Payout Ratio used 49.01%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.26%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
LTM
Feb 01
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
Beginning Book Value 10.52 10.56 10.56 10.82 11.09 11.37 11.66
Ending Book Value 10.56 11.38 10.82 11.09 11.37 11.66 11.95
EPS 1.48 1.41 0.518 0.531 0.544 0.558 0.572
Return on Equity 17.11% 13.32% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
Dividend per Share 1.44 1.44 0.254 0.26 0.267 0.273 0.28
Retained Earnings 0.04 -0.034 0.264 0.271 0.277 0.284 0.291
Equity Cost per Share 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.2
Cost of Equity 10.27% 10.27% 10.27% 10.27% 10.27% 10.27% 10.27%
Excess Return 0.4 0.322 -0.567 -0.581 -0.595 -0.61 -0.626

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 01
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Net Income 532.9 1,670 1,670 863 155 -1,190 749 -266 688 129 771 623
Total Equity 9,671 12,393
9,762 8,257 7,870 10,291 11,079 11,041 9,906 8,754 7,356
Return on Equity 5.67% 13.32% 17.11% 10.45% 1.97% -11.56% 6.76% -2.41% 6.94% 1.47% 10.48% 7.82%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 1,381 1,569 1,469 1,336 4,464 710.6 884.1 628.7 1,186 1,327 816.4 800.5
Payout Ratio 399.7% 102.4% 97.3% 154.8% 2,785% -59.75% 117.1% -236.4% 172.4% 1,029% 105.9% 128.5%
Shares Outstanding 871 1,089 1,020 928 3,100 493.5 613.9 403 593.1 614.3 377.9 348
EPS 0.657 1.41 1.48 0.93 0.052 -2.41 1.23 -0.66 1.16 0.21 2.04 1.79
Dividend per Share 1.71 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.56 2.0 2.16 2.16 2.3
Book Value 15.85 11.38 10.56 10.52 2.66 15.95 16.76 27.49 18.62 16.13 23.16 21.14
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