Apollo Strategic Growth Capital (APSG) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
APSG
Apollo Strategic Growth Capital
APSG (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 76.04 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 34.93 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 10.01 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 44.94 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 427 Mil. USD
Total Debt 109 Mil. USD
Equity Value 45.25 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 485.8 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 93.15 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.09%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 11.3%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -4.41%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 3,999 6,329 9,588 13,876 19,143 25,111 31,240 36,749 40,740 42,407
Revenue Growth Rate 65.04% 58.27% 51.5% 44.72% 37.95% 31.18% 24.41% 17.63% 10.86% 4.09%
Operating Cash Flow 451.9 715.2 1,083 1,568 2,163 2,838 3,530 4,153 4,604 4,792
Operating Cash Flow Margin 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3% 11.3%
Capital Expenditure -176.3 -279 -422.7 -611.8 -844 -1,107 -1,377 -1,620 -1,796 -1,870
Capital Expenditure Margin -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41% -4.41%
Free Cash Flow 275.6 436.1 660.7 956.2 1,319 1,730 2,153 2,532 2,807 2,922
Free Cash Flow Margin 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89% 6.89%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.08% 15.74% 25.13% 35.26% 46.2% 58.03% 70.85% 84.67% 99.61%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 275.6 407.3 570.8 764.2 975.3 1,184 1,362 1,482 1,520 1,464

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 13
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
Revenue 1,070 3,999 2,423
0 0 0 0
Revenue Growth Rate 70.96% 65.04% 71.81% 71.81% 71.81% 71.81% 71.81% 71.81% 71.81%
Cost of Revenue 417.3 1,537 967
0 0 0 0
Gross Profit 653 2,462 1,456
0 0 0 0
Gross Margin 60.83% 61.57% 60.09%
Operating Income 50.8 203.2 115
-12.86 -0.583 -0.002 -0.002
Operating Margin 4.91% 5.08% 4.75%
Net Income -31.54 -50.82 -138
0 -0.408 -0.002 -0.002
Net Margin -3.48% -1.27% -5.7%
Cash from Operating Activities 120.1 455 272
-4.02 -2.44 0 0
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 11.3% 11.38% 11.23%
Capital Expenditure -47.17 -176 -107
0 0 0 0
Free Cash Flow 72.93 279 165
-4.02 -2.44 0 0
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Discounting Cash Flows

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