ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX.TO) Discounted Future Market Cap

ARC Resources Ltd.

ARX.TO (TSX)

Valuation
ARC Resources Ltd. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Model Info

Estimated Value

CAD

Market Price CAD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	19.6 CAD
Estimated net income	1.45 Bil. CAD
Estimated market capitalization	15.2 Bil. CAD
Market capitalization discounted to present	11.38 Bil. CAD
Shares Outstanding	580.6 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	2.37 CAD
Market Price	25.08 CAD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	10.51

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in CAD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2015", "x": "2015-12-31", "y": 1090400000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 974500000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 1208500000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 1395900000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 1222300000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 1134400000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 5110800000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 8641200000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 5655100000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 5099000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 6373750000, "oy": 6373750000, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 7967187500, "oy": 7967187500, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 9958984375, "oy": 9958984375, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 12448730468, "oy": 12448730468, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 15560913085, "oy": 15560913085, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2015", "x": "2015-12-31", "y": -342700000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 201300000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 388900000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 213800000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": -27600000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": -547200000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 786600000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 2302300000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 1596500000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 1124100000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 592248850, "oy": 592248850, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": -47.31, "og": -47.31}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 740311062, "oy": 740311062, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 925388828, "oy": 925388828, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 1156736035, "oy": 1156736035, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 1445920043, "oy": 1445920043, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2025-12-31": 30, "2026-12-31": 31, "2027-12-31": 32, "2028-12-31": 33, "2029-12-31": 34}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2025-12-31	2026-12-31	2027-12-31	2028-12-31	2029-12-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in CAD amounts except #	2024 Dec 31	LTM Jan 23	2025 Dec 31	2026 Dec 31	2027 Dec 31	2028 Dec 31	2029 Dec 31
Revenue	5,099	5,854	6,374	7,967	9,959	12,449	15,561
Revenue Growth Rate	-9.83%	14.81%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%
Net Income	1,124	1,386	592.2	740.3	925.4	1,157	1,446

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

2024
Dec 31

LTM
Jan 23

2025
Dec 31

2026
Dec 31

2027
Dec 31

2028
Dec 31

2029
Dec 31

Revenue

5,099

5,854

6,374

7,967

9,959

12,449

15,561

Revenue Growth Rate

-9.83%

14.81%

25%

Net Income

1,124

1,386

592.2

740.3

925.4

1,157

1,446

Historical Values

Monetary values in CAD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 23	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31	2015 Dec 31
Revenue	3,399	5,854	5,099	5,655	8,641	5,111	1,134	1,222	1,396	1,208	974.5	1,090
Cost of Revenue	1,378	2,847	2,271	2,322	3,087	1,858	447.3	497.4	561.2	491.5	384.4	395
Gross Profit	2,020	3,007	2,828	3,333	5,554	3,253	687.1	724.9	834.7	717	590.1	695.4
Gross Margin	59.73%	51.36%	55.47%	58.94%	64.27%	63.65%	60.57%	59.31%	59.8%	59.33%	60.55%	63.77%
Operating Income	1,880	2,813	2,580	3,121	5,341	3,086	588.1	640.7	749.5	646.8	490.8	626.8
Operating Margin	54.12%	48.05%	50.6%	55.19%	61.8%	60.39%	51.84%	52.42%	53.69%	53.52%	50.36%	57.48%
Net Income	643.8	1,386	1,124	1,596	2,302	786.6	-547.2	-27.6	213.8	388.9	201.3	-342.7
Net Margin	9.29%	23.67%	22.05%	28.23%	26.64%	15.39%	-48.24%	-2.26%	15.32%	32.18%	20.66%	-31.43%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in CAD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 23	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31	2015 Dec 31
Revenue	3,399	5,854	5,099	5,655	8,641	5,111	1,134	1,222	1,396	1,208	974.5	1,090
Revenue Growth Rate	32.68%	14.81%	-9.83%	-34.56%	69.08%	350.5%	-7.19%	-12.44%	15.51%	24.01%	-10.63%	-39.75%
Net Income	643.8	1,386	1,124	1,596	2,302	786.6	-547.2	-27.6	213.8	388.9	201.3	-342.7
Net Margin	9.29%	23.67%	22.05%	28.23%	26.64%	15.39%	-48.24%	-2.26%	15.32%	32.18%	20.66%	-31.43%
Net Income Growth Rate	125.6%	23.25%	-29.59%	-30.66%	192.7%	-243.8%	1,883%	-112.9%	-45.02%	93.19%	-158.7%	-190%
Stockholders Equity	5,146	8,204	7,948	7,428	6,654	5,928	2,791	3,440	3,676	3,669	3,485	3,388
Equity Growth Rate	11.36%	3.22%	7.01%	11.64%	12.25%	112.4%	-18.88%	-6.42%	0.188%	5.28%	2.84%	-4.6%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	15.32%	16.22%	16.31%	21.24%	41.91%	24.72%	9.29%	2.55%	9.1%	8.7%	7.65%	10.86%
After-tax Operating Income	1,430	2,203	1,993	2,422	4,129	2,440	426.3	137.6	498	479.3	407.1	599.2
Income Tax Rate	27.04%	21.67%	22.74%	22.4%	22.69%	20.95%	27.51%	78.52%	33.56%	25.9%	17.06%	4.41%
Invested Capital	8,066	13,583	12,219	11,400	9,851	9,869	4,586	5,405	5,472	5,506	5,322	5,515