ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX.TO) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
ARX.TO
ARC Resources Ltd.
ARX.TO (TSX)

Estimated Value

CAD

Market Price CAD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 75.44 Bil. CAD
Discounted Terminal Value 34.11 Bil. CAD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 12.3 Bil. CAD
Enterprise Value 46.41 Bil. CAD
Cash and Equivalents 3 Mil. CAD
Total Debt 3.85 Bil. CAD
Equity Value 42.57 Bil. CAD
Shares Outstanding 580.6 Mil. CAD
Estimated Value per Share 73.32 CAD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 52.73%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -42%

Monetary values in CAD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 6,766 8,764 11,075 13,646 16,383 19,151 21,781 24,085 25,872 26,974
Revenue Growth Rate 32.69% 29.53% 26.37% 23.21% 20.05% 16.9% 13.74% 10.58% 7.42% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 3,568 4,621 5,840 7,196 8,639 10,098 11,485 12,700 13,642 14,224
Operating Cash Flow Margin 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73% 52.73%
Capital Expenditure -2,842 -3,681 -4,652 -5,731 -6,881 -8,043 -9,148 -10,116 -10,866 -11,329
Capital Expenditure Margin -42% -42% -42% -42% -42% -42% -42% -42% -42% -42%
Free Cash Flow 726 940.4 1,188 1,464 1,758 2,055 2,337 2,584 2,776 2,894
Free Cash Flow Margin 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73% 10.73%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.72% 16.62% 26.28% 36.71% 48% 60.23% 73.5% 87.83% 103.3%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 726 873 1,019 1,160 1,286 1,388 1,459 1,490 1,478 1,423

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 23
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 3,399 5,854 5,099 5,655 8,641 5,111 1,134 1,222 1,396 1,208 974.5 1,090
Revenue Growth Rate 32.68% 14.81% -9.83% -34.56% 69.08% 350.5% -7.19% -12.44% 15.51% 24.01% -10.63% -39.75%
Cost of Revenue 1,378 2,847 2,271 2,322 3,087 1,858 447.3 497.4 561.2 491.5 384.4 395
Gross Profit 2,020 3,007 2,828 3,333 5,554 3,253 687.1 724.9 834.7 717 590.1 695.4
Gross Margin 59.73% 51.36% 55.47% 58.94% 64.27% 63.65% 60.57% 59.31% 59.8% 59.33% 60.55% 63.77%
Operating Income 1,880 2,813 2,580 3,121 5,341 3,086 588.1 640.7 749.5 646.8 490.8 626.8
Operating Margin 54.12% 48.05% 50.6% 55.19% 61.8% 60.39% 51.84% 52.42% 53.69% 53.52% 50.36% 57.48%
Net Income 643.8 1,386 1,124 1,596 2,302 786.6 -547.2 -27.6 213.8 388.9 201.3 -342.7
Net Margin 9.29% 23.67% 22.05% 28.23% 26.64% 15.39% -48.24% -2.26% 15.32% 32.18% 20.66% -31.43%
Cash from Operating Activities 1,619 3,076 2,349 2,394 3,833 2,006 655.7 638.8 862.8 672.8 630.7 689
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 52.73% 52.55% 46.06% 42.34% 44.36% 39.26% 57.8% 52.26% 61.81% 55.67% 64.72% 63.19%
Capital Expenditure -1,062 -1,764 -1,802 -1,826 -1,422 -1,053 -334.8 -683.6 -680.2 -929.5 -628.5 -562.3
Free Cash Flow 556.7 1,313 546.9 567.8 2,411 953.9 320.9 -44.8 182.6 -256.7 2.2 126.7
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Discounting Cash Flows

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