Australian Vintage Ltd (AVG.AX) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
AVG.AX
Australian Vintage Ltd
AVG.AX (ASX)

Estimated Value

AUD

Market Price AUD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out Nathan's YouTube Channel

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value -2 Mil. AUD
Discounted Terminal Value -912.4 Thou. AUD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow -455 Thou. AUD
Enterprise Value -1.37 Mil. AUD
Cash and Equivalents 8.88 Mil. AUD
Total Debt 142 Mil. AUD
Equity Value -134.5 Mil. AUD
Shares Outstanding 185.8 Mil. AUD
Estimated Value per Share -0.724 AUD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.18%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 3.93%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -3.96%

Monetary values in AUD

Edit Chart Values 2026-06-30 2027-06-30 2028-06-30 2029-06-30 2030-06-30 2031-06-30 2032-06-30 2033-06-30 2034-06-30 2035-06-30

Monetary values in AUD

amounts except #

2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
2031
Jun 30
2032
Jun 30
2033
Jun 30
2034
Jun 30
2035
Jun 30
Revenue 260.1 264 268.8 274.6 281.5 289.4 298.6 309.1 320.9 334.4
Revenue Growth Rate 1.15% 1.48% 1.82% 2.16% 2.5% 2.83% 3.17% 3.51% 3.84% 4.18%
Operating Cash Flow 10.23 10.39 10.57 10.8 11.07 11.39 11.75 12.16 12.63 13.15
Operating Cash Flow Margin 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93% 3.93%
Capital Expenditure -10.29 -10.45 -10.64 -10.87 -11.14 -11.45 -11.82 -12.23 -12.7 -13.23
Capital Expenditure Margin -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96% -3.96%
Free Cash Flow -0.06 -0.061 -0.062 -0.063 -0.065 -0.067 -0.069 -0.071 -0.074 -0.077
Free Cash Flow Margin -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023% -0.023%
Compounded Discount Rate 3.71% 12.19% 21.39% 31.32% 42.07% 53.69% 66.3% 79.9% 94.61% 110.5%
Discounted Free Cash Flow -0.058 -0.054 -0.051 -0.048 -0.046 -0.043 -0.041 -0.04 -0.038 -0.037

Monetary values in AUD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 12
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Revenue 258 257.2 257.2 260.6 258.6 260.1 274 267.1 269.2 264.6 226.4 242.7
Revenue Growth Rate 1.15% 0% -1.31% 0.788% -0.593% -5.06% 2.55% -0.753% 1.72% 16.85% -6.69% 5.11%
Cost of Revenue 188.8 187.8 187.8 223.1 183.4 174.8 187.8 190.9 199.7 193.4 170.5 177.6
Gross Profit 68.23 69.36 69.36 27.69 75.11 85.35 86.2 74.4 69.42 71.17 57.33 65.1
Gross Margin 26.42% 26.97% 26.97% 10.63% 29.05% 32.81% 31.46% 27.85% 25.79% 26.89% 25.32% 26.83%
Operating Income 9.21 1.84 1.84 -46.26 8.45 26.02 30.65 19.17 20.8 16.18 6.98 15.66
Operating Margin 3.52% 0.717% 0.717% -17.75% 3.27% 10% 11.19% 7.18% 7.73% 6.11% 3.08% 6.45%
Net Income -3.85 -9.56 -9.56 -93.03 4.01 17.33 19.6 10.95 8.12 7.69 4.3 -2.19
Net Margin -1.52% -3.72% -3.72% -35.7% 1.55% 6.66% 7.16% 4.1% 3.02% 2.91% 1.9% -0.904%
Cash from Operating Activities 10.4 -7.66 -7.66 -10.96 -12.72 15.35 45.03 22.26 23.59 26.67 14 6.46
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 3.93% -2.98% -2.98% -4.21% -4.92% 5.9% 16.44% 8.33% 8.77% 10.08% 6.18% 2.66%
Capital Expenditure -10.22 -6.99 -6.99 -7.88 -10.76 -11.35 -6.42 -10.22 -16.18 -19.38 -12.07 -4.15
Free Cash Flow 0.178 -14.65 -14.65 -18.84 -23.48 4 38.61 12.04 7.42 7.28 1.92 2.31
discounting cash flows home logo

Discounting Cash Flows

Are you finding our services helpful? Review us on trustpilot logo Trustpilot
Have a question? Contact us
Want to become our sponsor?
Check out our Affiliate Program