BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Discounted Future Market Cap

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

BJ (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	69.72 USD
Estimated net income	546 Mil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	12.01 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	9.08 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	130.2 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	4.41 USD
Market Price	97.72 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	22

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2017-01-31", "y": 12350537000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2018-01-31", "y": 12754589000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2019-01-31", "y": 13007347000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2020-01-31", "y": 13190707000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2021-01-31", "y": 15430017000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2022-01-31", "y": 16667302000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2023-01-31", "y": 19315165000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2024-01-31", "y": 19968689000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2025-01-31", "y": 20501804000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2026-01-31", "y": 21457274000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2027-01-31", "y": 22575412548, "oy": 22575412548, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2028-01-31", "y": 23751817296, "oy": 23751817296, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2029-01-31", "y": 24989524495, "oy": 24989524495, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2030-01-31", "y": 26291728616, "oy": 26291728616, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2031-01-31", "y": 27661790594, "oy": 27661790594, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2017-01-31", "y": 44224000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2018-01-31", "y": 50301000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2019-01-31", "y": 127261000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2020-01-31", "y": 187176000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2021-01-31", "y": 421030000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2022-01-31", "y": 426652000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2023-01-31", "y": 513177000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2024-01-31", "y": 523741000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2025-01-31", "y": 534417000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2026-01-31", "y": 578377000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2027-01-31", "y": 445638643, "oy": 445638643, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -22.95, "og": -22.95}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2028-01-31", "y": 468860873, "oy": 468860873, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2029-01-31", "y": 493293213, "oy": 493293213, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2030-01-31", "y": 518998722, "oy": 518998722, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2031-01-31", "y": 546043746, "oy": 546043746, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.21, "og": 5.21}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2027-01-31": 12, "2028-01-31": 13, "2029-01-31": 14, "2030-01-31": 15, "2031-01-31": 16}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2027-01-31	2028-01-31	2029-01-31	2030-01-31	2031-01-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Jan 31	LTM Mar 14	2026 Jan 31	2027 Jan 31	2028 Jan 31	2029 Jan 31	2030 Jan 31
Revenue	21,457	21,457	22,575	23,752	24,990	26,292	27,662
Revenue Growth Rate	4.66%	0%	5.21%	5.21%	5.21%	5.21%	5.21%
Net Income	578.4	578.4	445.6	468.9	493.3	519	546

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jan 31

LTM
Mar 14

2026
Jan 31

2027
Jan 31

2028
Jan 31

2029
Jan 31

2030
Jan 31

Revenue

21,457

22,575

23,752

24,990

26,292

27,662

Revenue Growth Rate

4.66%

5.21%

Net Income

578.4

445.6

468.9

493.3

519

546

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 14	2025 Jan 31	2024 Jan 31	2023 Jan 31	2022 Jan 31	2021 Jan 31	2020 Jan 31	2019 Jan 31	2018 Jan 31	2017 Jan 31	2016 Jan 31
Revenue	16,918	21,457	21,457	20,502	19,969	19,315	16,667	15,430	13,191	13,007	12,755	12,351
Cost of Revenue	13,823	17,458	17,458	16,737	16,326	15,884	13,589	12,451	10,764	10,646	10,513	10,223
Gross Profit	3,096	4,000	4,000	3,764	3,643	3,431	3,079	2,979	2,427	2,361	2,241	2,128
Gross Margin	18.25%	18.64%	18.64%	18.36%	18.24%	17.77%	18.47%	19.31%	18.4%	18.15%	17.57%	17.23%
Operating Income	576.5	833.2	846	772.2	800.4	738	617.3	642.4	352.2	303.5	220.3	216
Operating Margin	3.25%	3.88%	3.94%	3.77%	4.01%	3.82%	3.7%	4.16%	2.67%	2.33%	1.73%	1.75%
Net Income	362.2	578.4	578.4	534.4	523.7	513.2	426.7	421	187.2	127.3	50.3	44.22
Net Margin	1.97%	2.7%	2.7%	2.61%	2.62%	2.66%	2.56%	2.73%	1.42%	0.978%	0.394%	0.358%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 14	2025 Jan 31	2024 Jan 31	2023 Jan 31	2022 Jan 31	2021 Jan 31	2020 Jan 31	2019 Jan 31	2018 Jan 31	2017 Jan 31	2016 Jan 31
Revenue	16,918	21,457	21,457	20,502	19,969	19,315	16,667	15,430	13,191	13,007	12,755	12,351
Revenue Growth Rate	5.21%	0%	4.66%	2.67%	3.38%	15.89%	8.02%	16.98%	1.41%	1.98%	3.27%	-0.939%
Net Income	362.2	578.4	578.4	534.4	523.7	513.2	426.7	421	187.2	127.3	50.3	44.22
Net Margin	1.97%	2.7%	2.7%	2.61%	2.62%	2.66%	2.56%	2.73%	1.42%	0.978%	0.394%	0.358%
Net Income Growth Rate	41.47%	0%	8.23%	2.04%	2.06%	20.28%	1.33%	124.9%	47.08%	153%	13.74%	83.47%
Stockholders Equity	761.9	2,496	2,198	1,847	1,459	1,047	648.1	319.3	-54.34	-202.1	-1,030	-347.2
Equity Growth Rate	-38.14%	13.57%	18.96%	26.64%	39.36%	61.52%	103%	-687.6%	-73.11%	-80.38%	196.6%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	13.96%	12.85%	13.18%	12.71%	13.65%	14.58%	13.04%	14.53%	7.88%	16.99%	27.48%	6.64%
After-tax Operating Income	460.4	616.2	632	572.5	569.6	549.6	472.2	484.9	271.1	277.6	486.2	132.9
Income Tax Rate	11.72%	26.04%	25.29%	25.86%	28.84%	25.53%	23.5%	24.52%	23.04%	8.51%	-120.7%	38.49%
Invested Capital	3,440	4,794	4,794	4,503	4,174	3,771	3,621	3,337	3,438	1,634	1,769	2,000

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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Beta

Beta

Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

Market Premium

Market Premium

Pe Ratio

Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Net Income Margin

Net Income Margin

Historical Years

Historical Years

Projection Years

Projection Years

Results

Historical and forecasted data

Estimated Future Values

Historical Values

Historical Growth Rates

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth

Earnings Power Value

Simple Dividend Discount Model

Simple Excess Return Model

Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple

Discounted Future Market Cap

Peter Lynch Fair Value

Altman Z-Score

Beneish M-Score

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Margin Analysis

Piotroski F-Score

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)