Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
BMO.TO
Bank of Montreal
BMO.TO (TSX)

Estimated Value

CAD

Market Price CAD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 169.8 CAD
Book value of equity invested 123.4 CAD
Next year's estimated book value 125 CAD
Present value of future excess returns 46.35 CAD
Excess Return per share 3.2 CAD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.41%
Average historical Return on Equity 12.04%
Average historical Payout Ratio 53.11%
Payout Ratio used 79.24%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in CAD

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

2025
Oct 31
LTM
Jan 23
2026
Oct 31
2027
Oct 31
2028
Oct 31
2029
Oct 31
2030
Oct 31
Beginning Book Value 115.8 122.0 122.0 125.0 128.1 131.3 134.6
Ending Book Value 122.0 123.4 125.0 128.1 131.3 134.6 138.0
EPS 11.46 11.47 14.68 15.05 15.43 15.81 16.21
Return on Equity 10.34% 9.89% 12.04% 12.04% 12.04% 12.04% 12.04%
Dividend per Share 6.44 6.52 11.64 11.93 12.22 12.53 12.84
Retained Earnings 5.02 4.95 3.05 3.13 3.2 3.28 3.37
Equity Cost per Share 10.9 11.48 11.48 11.77 12.06 12.36 12.67
Cost of Equity 9.41% 9.41% 9.41% 9.41% 9.41% 9.41% 9.41%
Excess Return 0.563 -0.011 3.2 3.28 3.37 3.45 3.54

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 23
2025
Oct 31
2024
Oct 31
2023
Oct 31
2022
Oct 31
2021
Oct 31
2020
Oct 31
2019
Oct 31
2018
Oct 31
2017
Oct 31
2016
Oct 31
Net Income 6,975 8,709 8,709 7,318 4,425 13,537 7,754 5,097 5,758 5,450 5,348 4,622
Total Equity 64,180 88,051 88,051 84,250 77,009 71,038 57,523 56,593 51,076 45,727 44,354 42,304
Return on Equity 12.04% 9.89% 10.34% 9.5% 6.23% 23.53% 13.7% 9.98% 12.59% 12.29% 12.64% 11.72%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 3,322 4,651 4,649 4,454 4,114 3,612 2,744 2,720 2,594 2,430 2,313 2,264
Payout Ratio 53.11% 56.84% 56.2% 64.22% 100.5% 27.15% 36.55% 56.08% 46.77% 46.15% 44.78% 48.99%
Shares Outstanding 674.8 713.3 721.9 727.7 709.4 664 647.2 641.4 638.9 642.9 649.6 666
EPS 9.93 11.47 11.46 9.53 5.77 20.04 11.6 7.56 8.68 8.19 7.95 6.94
Dividend per Share 4.87 6.52 6.44 6.12 5.8 5.44 4.24 4.24 4.06 3.78 3.56 3.4
Book Value 94.25 123.4 122.0 115.8 108.6 107.0 88.88 88.23 79.95 71.12 68.27 63.52
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