CMC Materials, Inc. (CCMP) Discounted Future Market Cap

CMC Materials, Inc.

CCMP (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
CMC Materials, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	-358.1 USD
Estimated net income	219.1 Mil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	-16.17 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	-10.38 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	29 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	3.86 USD
Market Price	173.7 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-73.77

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2012", "x": "2012-09-30", "y": 427657000}, {"l": "2013", "x": "2013-09-30", "y": 433131000}, {"l": "2014", "x": "2014-09-30", "y": 424666000}, {"l": "2015", "x": "2015-09-30", "y": 414097000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-09-30", "y": 430449000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-09-30", "y": 507179000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-09-30", "y": 590123000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-09-30", "y": 1037696000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-09-30", "y": 1116270000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-09-30", "y": 1199831000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-09-30", "y": 1338531463, "oy": 1338531463, "e": true, "d": 2022, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-09-30", "y": 1493265700, "oy": 1493265700, "e": true, "d": 2023, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-09-30", "y": 1665887215, "oy": 1665887215, "e": true, "d": 2024, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-09-30", "y": 1858463777, "oy": 1858463777, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-09-30", "y": 2073302190, "oy": 2073302190, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2012", "x": "2012-09-30", "y": 40826000}, {"l": "2013", "x": "2013-09-30", "y": 51385000}, {"l": "2014", "x": "2014-09-30", "y": 50751000}, {"l": "2015", "x": "2015-09-30", "y": 56146000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2016-09-30", "y": 59849000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-09-30", "y": 86952000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-09-30", "y": 110043000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-09-30", "y": 39215000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-09-30", "y": 142828000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-09-30", "y": -68577000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-09-30", "y": 141482775, "oy": 141482775, "e": true, "d": 2022, "g": -306.3, "og": -306.3}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-09-30", "y": 157838184, "oy": 157838184, "e": true, "d": 2023, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-09-30", "y": 176084278, "oy": 176084278, "e": true, "d": 2024, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-09-30", "y": 196439621, "oy": 196439621, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-09-30", "y": 219148041, "oy": 219148041, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 11.56, "og": 11.56}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2022-09-30": 24, "2023-09-30": 25, "2024-09-30": 26, "2025-09-30": 27, "2026-09-30": 28}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2022-09-30	2023-09-30	2024-09-30	2025-09-30	2026-09-30

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2021 Sep 30	LTM Jan 15	2022 Sep 30	2023 Sep 30	2024 Sep 30	2025 Sep 30	2026 Sep 30
Revenue	1,200	1,263	1,339	1,493	1,666	1,858	2,073
Revenue Growth Rate	7.49%	5.23%	11.56%	11.56%	11.56%	11.56%	11.56%
Net Income	-68.58	111.7	141.5	157.8	176.1	196.4	219.1

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2021
Sep 30

LTM
Jan 15

2022
Sep 30

2023
Sep 30

2024
Sep 30

2025
Sep 30

2026
Sep 30

Revenue

1,200

1,263

1,339

1,493

1,666

1,858

2,073

Revenue Growth Rate

7.49%

5.23%

11.56%

Net Income

-68.58

111.7

141.5

157.8

176.1

196.4

219.1

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 15	2021 Sep 30	2020 Sep 30	2019 Sep 30	2018 Sep 30	2017 Sep 30	2016 Sep 30	2015 Sep 30	2014 Sep 30	2013 Sep 30	2012 Sep 30
Revenue	713.1	1,263	1,200	1,116	1,038	590.1	507.2	430.4	414.1	424.7	433.1	427.7
Cost of Revenue	390.8	757	701.7	627.7	595	276	253.1	220.2	201.9	221.6	221	223.6
Gross Profit	322.3	505.6	498.2	488.6	442.7	314.1	254.1	210.2	212.2	203.1	212.1	204
Gross Margin	46.9%	40.04%	41.52%	43.77%	42.66%	53.23%	50.11%	48.83%	51.25%	47.82%	48.97%	47.71%
Operating Income	103.4	188.9	-15.3	216.9	110.5	160.1	112	74.51	75.04	71.81	76.47	66.52
Operating Margin	16.23%	14.96%	-1.28%	19.43%	10.65%	27.13%	22.08%	17.31%	18.12%	16.91%	17.66%	15.56%
Net Income	61.92	111.7	-68.58	142.8	39.22	110	86.95	59.85	56.15	50.75	51.38	40.83
Net Margin	10.57%	8.85%	-5.72%	12.8%	3.78%	18.65%	17.14%	13.9%	13.56%	11.95%	11.86%	9.55%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 15	2021 Sep 30	2020 Sep 30	2019 Sep 30	2018 Sep 30	2017 Sep 30	2016 Sep 30	2015 Sep 30	2014 Sep 30	2013 Sep 30	2012 Sep 30
Revenue	713.1	1,263	1,200	1,116	1,038	590.1	507.2	430.4	414.1	424.7	433.1	427.7
Revenue Growth Rate	11.55%	5.23%	7.49%	7.57%	75.84%	16.35%	17.83%	3.95%	-2.49%	-1.95%	1.28%	-3.99%
Net Income	61.92	111.7	-68.58	142.8	39.22	110	86.95	59.85	56.15	50.75	51.38	40.83
Net Margin	10.57%	8.85%	-5.72%	12.8%	3.78%	18.65%	17.14%	13.9%	13.56%	11.95%	11.86%	9.55%
Net Income Growth Rate	-10.76%	-262.9%	-148%	264.2%	-64.36%	26.56%	45.29%	6.59%	10.63%	-1.23%	25.86%	-20.97%
Stockholders Equity	640.8	944.1	878.9	1,074	980.4	666.7	595	497.6	429	372	327.1	283.6
Equity Growth Rate	7.99%	7.41%	-18.19%	9.58%	47.05%	12.04%	19.57%	16.01%	15.31%	13.74%	15.33%	-49.93%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	16.02%	8.07%	-1.09%	9.22%	3.61%	33.33%	25.81%	16.9%	24.09%	20.31%	20.29%	15.64%
After-tax Operating Income	76.39	142.3	-19.15	178.7	68.66	109	89.03	63.31	59.18	53.13	52.94	43.2
Income Tax Rate	21.4%	24.65%	-25.15%	17.61%	37.86%	31.95%	20.5%	15.03%	21.14%	26.01%	30.77%	35.06%
Invested Capital	859.4	1,764	1,759	1,938	1,902	326.9	345	374.6	245.6	261.6	261	276.1