America's Car-Mart, Inc. (CRMT) Discounted Future Market Cap

America's Car-Mart, Inc.

CRMT (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
America's Car-Mart, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	-100.8 USD
Estimated net income	81.51 Mil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	-1.29 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	-834.2 Mil. USD
Shares Outstanding	8.28 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	-1.74 USD
Market Price	27.68 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-15.87

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2015", "x": "2016-04-30", "y": 567906000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2017-04-30", "y": 587751000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2018-04-30", "y": 612201000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2019-04-30", "y": 669122000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2020-04-30", "y": 744611000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2021-04-30", "y": 918610000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2022-04-30", "y": 1212365000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2023-04-30", "y": 1405498000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2024-04-30", "y": 1393894000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2025-04-30", "y": 1390932000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2026-04-30", "y": 1501844917, "oy": 1501844917, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2027-04-30", "y": 1621602031, "oy": 1621602031, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2028-04-30", "y": 1750908577, "oy": 1750908577, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2029-04-30", "y": 1890526027, "oy": 1890526027, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2030-04-30", "y": 2041276572, "oy": 2041276572, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2015", "x": "2016-04-30", "y": 11596000}, {"l": "2016", "x": "2017-04-30", "y": 20205000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2018-04-30", "y": 36509000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2019-04-30", "y": 47625000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2020-04-30", "y": 51343000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2021-04-30", "y": 104820000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2022-04-30", "y": 95014000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2023-04-30", "y": 20432000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2024-04-30", "y": -31393000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2025-04-30", "y": 17892000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2026-04-30", "y": 59968667, "oy": 59968667, "e": true, "d": 2025, "g": 235.2, "og": 235.2}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2027-04-30", "y": 64750569, "oy": 64750569, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2028-04-30", "y": 69913779, "oy": 69913779, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2029-04-30", "y": 75488704, "oy": 75488704, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2030-04-30", "y": 81508173, "oy": 81508173, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 7.97, "og": 7.97}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-04-30": 38, "2027-04-30": 39, "2028-04-30": 40, "2029-04-30": 41, "2030-04-30": 42}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-04-30	2027-04-30	2028-04-30	2029-04-30	2030-04-30

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2024 Apr 30	LTM Jan 13	2025 Apr 30	2026 Apr 30	2027 Apr 30	2028 Apr 30	2029 Apr 30
Revenue	1,391	1,143	1,502	1,622	1,751	1,891	2,041
Revenue Growth Rate	-0.212%	-17.85%	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%
Net Income	17.89	-14.44	59.97	64.75	69.91	75.49	81.51

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2024
Apr 30

LTM
Jan 13

2025
Apr 30

2026
Apr 30

2027
Apr 30

2028
Apr 30

2029
Apr 30

Revenue

1,391

1,143

1,502

1,622

1,751

1,891

2,041

Revenue Growth Rate

-0.212%

-17.85%

7.97%

Net Income

17.89

-14.44

59.97

64.75

69.91

75.49

81.51

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 13	2024 Apr 30	2023 Apr 30	2022 Apr 30	2021 Apr 30	2020 Apr 30	2019 Apr 30	2018 Apr 30	2017 Apr 30	2016 Apr 30	2015 Apr 30
Revenue	967.8	1,143	1,391	1,394	1,405	1,212	918.6	744.6	669.1	612.2	587.8	567.9
Cost of Revenue	523	655.3	726.1	765.4	805.9	663.6	479.2	388.5	343.9	315.3	304.9	304.9
Gross Profit	438.7	420.2	664.9	628.5	599.6	548.7	439.5	356.1	325.2	296.9	282.8	263
Gross Margin	45.89%	36.77%	47.8%	45.09%	42.66%	45.26%	47.84%	47.83%	48.6%	48.5%	48.12%	46.31%
Operating Income	66.7	53.8	93.75	25.65	64.47	131.5	141.2	72.29	59.76	39	33.45	18.87
Operating Margin	7.1%	4.71%	6.74%	1.84%	4.59%	10.84%	15.37%	9.71%	8.93%	6.37%	5.69%	3.32%
Net Income	32.69	-14.44	17.89	-31.39	20.43	95.01	104.8	51.34	47.62	36.51	20.2	11.6
Net Margin	3.99%	-1.26%	1.29%	-2.25%	1.45%	7.84%	11.41%	6.89%	7.12%	5.96%	3.44%	2.04%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 13	2024 Apr 30	2023 Apr 30	2022 Apr 30	2021 Apr 30	2020 Apr 30	2019 Apr 30	2018 Apr 30	2017 Apr 30	2016 Apr 30	2015 Apr 30
Revenue	967.8	1,143	1,391	1,394	1,405	1,212	918.6	744.6	669.1	612.2	587.8	567.9
Revenue Growth Rate	7.97%	-17.85%	-0.212%	-0.826%	15.93%	31.98%	23.37%	11.28%	9.3%	4.16%	3.49%	7.09%
Net Income	32.69	-14.44	17.89	-31.39	20.43	95.01	104.8	51.34	47.62	36.51	20.2	11.6
Net Margin	3.99%	-1.26%	1.29%	-2.25%	1.45%	7.84%	11.41%	6.89%	7.12%	5.96%	3.44%	2.04%
Net Income Growth Rate	-40.22%	-180.7%	-157%	-253.6%	-78.5%	-9.35%	104.2%	7.81%	30.45%	80.69%	74.24%	-60.68%
Stockholders Equity	365.9	555	569.8	471.1	297.4	469.4	406.5	302.8	260.5	230.5	233	228.8
Equity Growth Rate	10.88%	-2.6%	20.97%	58.38%	-36.63%	15.47%	34.26%	16.22%	13%	-1.06%	1.83%	-0.137%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	7.99%	13.96%	6.02%	1.79%	6.61%	9.21%	13.78%	9.86%	10.1%	8.38%	5.16%	3.04%
After-tax Operating Income	52.1	41.94	73.73	20.06	51.07	102.3	109.4	57.68	47.55	36.59	20.96	11.83
Income Tax Rate	22.92%	22.04%	21.35%	21.78%	20.79%	22.19%	22.54%	20.21%	20.43%	6.16%	37.33%	37.31%
Invested Capital	691.5	300.5	1,225	1,118	772	1,111	793.9	585.2	470.6	436.5	406.1	388.5