Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (CTC-A.TO) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
CTC-A.TO
Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited
CTC-A.TO (TSX)

Estimated Value

CAD

Market Price CAD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 29.71 Bil. CAD
Discounted Terminal Value 13.54 Bil. CAD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 6.88 Bil. CAD
Enterprise Value 20.43 Bil. CAD
Cash and Equivalents 342.4 Mil. CAD
Total Debt 7.83 Bil. CAD
Equity Value 13.06 Bil. CAD
Shares Outstanding 53.76 Mil. CAD
Estimated Value per Share 243 CAD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.17%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 8.46%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -3.45%

Monetary values in CAD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 16,777 17,236 17,739 18,288 18,887 19,540 20,250 21,022 21,861 22,772
Revenue Growth Rate 2.56% 2.74% 2.92% 3.1% 3.28% 3.45% 3.63% 3.81% 3.99% 4.17%
Operating Cash Flow 1,419 1,458 1,501 1,547 1,598 1,653 1,713 1,779 1,850 1,927
Operating Cash Flow Margin 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46% 8.46%
Capital Expenditure -579.1 -595 -612.3 -631.3 -652 -674.5 -699 -725.7 -754.6 -786.1
Capital Expenditure Margin -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45% -3.45%
Free Cash Flow 840.3 863.4 888.5 916.1 946.1 978.7 1,014 1,053 1,095 1,141
Free Cash Flow Margin 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01% 5.01%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.8% 16.61% 26.16% 36.47% 47.62% 59.68% 72.76% 86.87% 102.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 840.3 800.9 762 726.1 693.3 663 635.2 609.5 586 564.3

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 16
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 15,008 16,272 16,358 16,656 17,811 16,292 14,871 14,534 14,059 13,277 12,681 12,280
Revenue Growth Rate 2.56% -0.526% -1.79% -6.48% 9.32% 9.56% 2.32% 3.38% 5.89% 4.7% 3.27% -1.47%
Cost of Revenue 10,118 10,873 10,731 10,957 12,075 10,814 10,103 9,969 9,667 9,104 8,582 8,419
Gross Profit 4,891 5,398 5,627 5,700 5,736 5,478 4,768 4,565 4,392 4,173 4,099 3,860
Gross Margin 32.5% 33.18% 34.4% 34.22% 32.2% 33.62% 32.06% 31.41% 31.24% 31.43% 32.32% 31.44%
Operating Income 1,659 1,875 2,074 2,079 2,630 1,942 1,518 1,473 1,290 1,227 1,101 1,039
Operating Margin 10.84% 11.52% 12.68% 12.48% 14.77% 11.92% 10.21% 10.14% 9.18% 9.24% 8.68% 8.46%
Net Income 753.5 729.9 887.7 213.3 1,044 1,128 751.8 778.4 692.1 735 669.1 659.4
Net Margin 5.04% 4.49% 5.43% 1.28% 5.86% 6.92% 5.05% 5.36% 4.92% 5.54% 5.28% 5.37%
Cash from Operating Activities 1,266 1,028 2,064 1,354 466.5 1,736 2,443 1,088 807.4 972.8 986.4 978.9
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 8.46% 6.32% 12.62% 8.13% 2.62% 10.65% 16.43% 7.48% 5.74% 7.33% 7.78% 7.97%
Capital Expenditure -513.9 -489.4 -576.3 -580.9 -612.5 -630.6 -307.2 -435.2 -416.8 -471 -617.3 -515.9
Free Cash Flow 751.9 539.1 1,488 772.8 -146 1,105 2,136 652.4 390.6 501.8 369.1 463
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