Danaher Corporation (DHR) Discounted Future Market Cap

Danaher Corporation

DHR (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
Danaher Corporation Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("quote:close") / data.get("income:eps"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Calculate a linear regression for forecasting revenues
data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"function:linear_regression:income:revenue start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"function:compound:{data.get('linearRegressionRevenue:1')} rate:{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} offset:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("quote:close"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": ["linearRegressionRevenue"]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	206.5 USD
Estimated net income	5.44 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	215.4 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	147.9 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	716.3 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	5.19 USD
Market Price	205.5 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	39.1

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values are in USD

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Edit Chart Values	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

amounts of USD except for #	2024	LTM	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Revenue	23,875	23,820	28,376	29,190	30,027	30,889	31,775
Revenue Growth Rate	-0.063%	-0.23%	18.85%	2.87%	2.87%	2.87%	2.87%
Net Income	3,899	3,765	4,858	4,997	5,141	5,288	5,440

Historical Values

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	22,579	23,820	23,875	23,890	31,471	29,453	22,284	17,911	19,893	18,330	16,882	20,563
Cost of Revenue	9,559	9,590	9,669	9,856	12,522	11,501	9,809	7,927	8,786	8,137	7,548	9,801
Gross Profit	13,021	14,230	14,206	14,034	18,949	17,952	12,475	9,984	11,107	10,192	9,335	10,762
Gross Margin	57.27%	59.74%	59.5%	58.74%	60.21%	60.95%	55.98%	55.74%	55.83%	55.61%	55.29%	52.34%
Operating Income	4,653	4,825	4,863	5,202	8,688	7,465	4,231	3,269	3,404	3,021	2,751	3,469
Operating Margin	19.94%	20.26%	20.37%	21.77%	27.61%	25.35%	18.99%	18.25%	17.11%	16.48%	16.29%	16.87%
Net Income	3,980	3,765	3,899	4,764	7,209	6,433	3,646	3,008	2,651	2,492	2,554	3,357
Net Margin	17.13%	15.81%	16.33%	19.94%	22.91%	21.84%	16.36%	16.8%	13.33%	13.6%	15.13%	16.33%

Historical Growth Rates

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	22,579	23,820	23,875	23,890	31,471	29,453	22,284	17,911	19,893	18,330	16,882	20,563
Revenue Growth Rate	2.87%	-0.23%	-0.063%	-24.09%	6.85%	32.17%	24.41%	-9.96%	8.53%	8.57%	-17.9%	3.26%
Net Income	3,980	3,765	3,899	4,764	7,209	6,433	3,646	3,008	2,651	2,492	2,554	3,357
Net Margin	17.13%	15.81%	16.33%	19.94%	22.91%	21.84%	16.36%	16.8%	13.33%	13.6%	15.13%	16.33%
Net Income Growth Rate	6.99%	-3.44%	-18.16%	-33.92%	12.06%	76.44%	21.2%	13.48%	6.37%	-2.41%	-23.94%	29.21%
Stockholders Equity	38,221	50,849	49,543	53,486	50,082	45,167	39,766	30,271	28,214	26,358	23,003	23,690
Equity Growth Rate	7.75%	2.64%	-7.37%	6.8%	10.88%	13.58%	31.37%	7.29%	7.04%	14.59%	-2.9%	1.33%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	6.77%	5.72%	5.94%	6.19%	10.8%	8.61%	5.47%	6.46%	6.49%	6.16%	6.06%	6.57%
After-tax Operating Income	3,850	4,033	4,081	4,353	7,553	6,236	3,432	2,406	2,740	2,539	2,269	2,712
Income Tax Rate	18.04%	16.41%	16.08%	16.32%	13.06%	16.46%	18.89%	26.41%	19.49%	15.96%	17.54%	21.82%
Invested Capital	55,821	70,478	68,666	70,350	69,966	72,458	62,724	37,237	42,203	41,226	37,458	41,261