National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) Discounted Future Market Cap

National Beverage Corp.

FIZZ (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
National Beverage Corp. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	31.37 USD
Estimated net income	222 Mil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	4.17 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	2.94 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	93.62 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	2 USD
Market Price	37.43 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	18.79

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-04-30", "y": 704785000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-04-30", "y": 826918000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-04-30", "y": 975734000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-04-30", "y": 1014105000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-04-30", "y": 1000394000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-04-30", "y": 1072210000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-04-30", "y": 1138013000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-04-30", "y": 1172932000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-04-30", "y": 1191694000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-04-30", "y": 1201354000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-04-30", "y": 1273086847, "oy": 1273086847, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-04-30", "y": 1349102862, "oy": 1349102862, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-04-30", "y": 1429657794, "oy": 1429657794, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-04-30", "y": 1515022661, "oy": 1515022661, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-04-30", "y": 1605484665, "oy": 1605484665, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-04-30", "y": 61198000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-04-30", "y": 107045000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-04-30", "y": 149774000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-04-30", "y": 140853000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-04-30", "y": 129972000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-04-30", "y": 174146000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-04-30", "y": 158512000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-04-30", "y": 142164000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-04-30", "y": 176732000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-04-30", "y": 186821000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-04-30", "y": 176067910, "oy": 176067910, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -5.76, "og": -5.76}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-04-30", "y": 186580925, "oy": 186580925, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-04-30", "y": 197721673, "oy": 197721673, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-04-30", "y": 209527634, "oy": 209527634, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-04-30", "y": 222038529, "oy": 222038529, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.97, "og": 5.97}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-04-30": 35, "2027-04-30": 36, "2028-04-30": 37, "2029-04-30": 38, "2030-04-30": 39}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-04-30	2027-04-30	2028-04-30	2029-04-30	2030-04-30

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Apr 30	LTM Mar 04	2026 Apr 30	2027 Apr 30	2028 Apr 30	2029 Apr 30	2030 Apr 30
Revenue	1,201	1,200	1,273	1,349	1,430	1,515	1,605
Revenue Growth Rate	0.811%	-0.152%	5.97%	5.97%	5.97%	5.97%	5.97%
Net Income	186.8	186.5	176.1	186.6	197.7	209.5	222

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Apr 30

LTM
Mar 04

2026
Apr 30

2027
Apr 30

2028
Apr 30

2029
Apr 30

2030
Apr 30

Revenue

1,201

1,200

1,273

1,349

1,430

1,515

1,605

Revenue Growth Rate

0.811%

-0.152%

5.97%

Net Income

186.8

186.5

176.1

186.6

197.7

209.5

222

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 04	2025 Apr 30	2024 Apr 30	2023 Apr 30	2022 Apr 30	2021 Apr 30	2020 Apr 30	2019 Apr 30	2018 Apr 30	2017 Apr 30	2016 Apr 30
Revenue	1,045	1,200	1,201	1,192	1,173	1,138	1,072	1,000	1,014	975.7	826.9	704.8
Cost of Revenue	657.2	752.7	757.4	763.2	776.1	720.2	650.6	630.3	629.8	584.6	500.8	463.3
Gross Profit	388	446.8	443.9	428.5	396.8	417.8	421.6	370.1	384.4	391.1	326.1	241.4
Gross Margin	37.15%	37.25%	36.95%	35.95%	33.83%	36.71%	39.32%	37%	37.9%	40.09%	39.43%	34.26%
Operating Income	192.6	236.9	235.5	218.5	186.7	207.9	227.8	165.7	179.9	204.2	162.5	93.05
Operating Margin	18.29%	19.75%	19.6%	18.34%	15.92%	18.26%	21.25%	16.57%	17.74%	20.93%	19.65%	13.2%
Net Income	146.7	186.5	186.8	176.7	142.2	158.5	174.1	130	140.9	149.8	107	61.2
Net Margin	13.83%	15.55%	15.55%	14.83%	12.12%	13.93%	16.24%	12.99%	13.89%	15.35%	12.95%	8.68%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 04	2025 Apr 30	2024 Apr 30	2023 Apr 30	2022 Apr 30	2021 Apr 30	2020 Apr 30	2019 Apr 30	2018 Apr 30	2017 Apr 30	2016 Apr 30
Revenue	1,045	1,200	1,201	1,192	1,173	1,138	1,072	1,000	1,014	975.7	826.9	704.8
Revenue Growth Rate	5.97%	-0.152%	0.811%	1.6%	3.07%	6.14%	7.18%	-1.35%	3.93%	18%	17.33%	9.13%
Net Income	146.7	186.5	186.8	176.7	142.2	158.5	174.1	130	140.9	149.8	107	61.2
Net Margin	13.83%	15.55%	15.55%	14.83%	12.12%	13.93%	16.24%	12.99%	13.89%	15.35%	12.95%	8.68%
Net Income Growth Rate	15.44%	-0.157%	5.71%	24.32%	-10.31%	-8.98%	33.99%	-7.72%	-5.96%	39.92%	74.92%	24.11%
Stockholders Equity	371.8	551.3	444	559.5	372.5	239.4	356	452.3	331.6	331.4	245.6	206.2
Equity Growth Rate	16.84%	24.16%	-20.65%	50.21%	55.57%	-32.74%	-21.3%	36.41%	0.051%	34.94%	19.14%	39.5%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	63.61%	49.45%	53.13%	55.05%	52.34%	57.83%	80.34%	62.8%	69.28%	90.58%	79.53%	49.42%
After-tax Operating Income	144.1	180.5	179.9	168	142.3	158.7	173.9	127.1	137.8	148.8	106.8	61.43
Income Tax Rate	25.79%	23.81%	23.61%	23.11%	23.75%	23.64%	23.67%	23.3%	23.4%	27.11%	34.26%	33.99%
Invested Capital	236	365	338.5	305.2	271.9	274.4	216.5	202.4	199	164.3	134.3	124.3