Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (FLGT) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
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FLGT
Fulgent Genetics, Inc.
FLGT (NASDAQ)
  • Repository Valuation
  • Nathan Winklepleck, CFA

  • Fulgent Genetics, Inc. Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow

Estimated Value

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Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%
Growth In Perpetuity

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
Historical Years

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
Projection Years

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.
Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 10.24 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 4.69 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 959.8 Mil. USD
Enterprise Value 5.65 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 50.19 Mil. USD
Total Debt 476 Thou. USD
Equity Value 5.99 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 30.78 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 194.5 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.12%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 11.58%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -10.56%

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31 2035-12-31

Forecast Data

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31 		2027
Dec 31 		2028
Dec 31 		2029
Dec 31 		2030
Dec 31 		2031
Dec 31 		2032
Dec 31 		2033
Dec 31 		2034
Dec 31 		2035
Dec 31
Revenue 737 1,581 3,175 5,937 10,281 16,383 23,845 31,413 37,045 38,571
Revenue Growth Rate 128.4% 114.6% 100.8% 86.97% 73.16% 59.36% 45.55% 31.74% 17.93% 4.12%
Operating Cash Flow 85.34 183.1 367.7 687.5 1,191 1,897 2,761 3,638 4,290 4,467
Operating Cash Flow Margin 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58% 11.58%
Capital Expenditure -77.83 -167 -335.3 -627 -1,086 -1,730 -2,518 -3,317 -3,912 -4,073
Capital Expenditure Margin -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56% -10.56%
Free Cash Flow 7.52 16.13 32.39 60.56 104.9 167.1 243.2 320.4 377.9 393.4
Free Cash Flow Margin 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02%
Compounded Discount Rate 6.54% 15.19% 24.57% 34.68% 45.62% 57.44% 70.26% 84.09% 99.04% 115.2%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 7.06 14 26 44.96 72.01 106.1 142.9 174.1 189.8 182.8

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Mar 10 		2025
Dec 31 		2024
Dec 31 		2023
Dec 31 		2022
Dec 31 		2021
Dec 31 		2020
Dec 31 		2019
Dec 31 		2018
Dec 31 		2017
Dec 31 		2016
Dec 31
Revenue 303.8 322.7 322.7 283.5 289.2 619 992.6 421.7 32.53 21.36 18.73 18.28
Revenue Growth Rate 128.4% 0% 13.83% -1.99% -53.27% -37.64% 135.4% 1,196% 52.31% 14.03% 2.48% 90.85%
Cost of Revenue 122 191.8 191.8 176.3 184.8 252.1 215.5 89.81 14.11 10.69 8.55 6.72
Gross Profit 181.8 130.9 130.9 107.2 104.5 366.9 777.1 331.9 18.42 10.66 10.18 11.55
Gross Margin 54.13% 40.56% 40.56% 37.82% 36.12% 59.28% 78.29% 78.7% 56.63% 49.94% 54.35% 63.22%
Operating Income 62.27 -91.1 -91.1 -73.92 -195.5 178.5 676 290.2 -0.428 -5.07 -3.48 0.919
Operating Margin -2.09% -28.23% -28.23% -26.08% -67.61% 28.84% 68.1% 68.8% -1.32% -23.74% -18.59% 5.03%
Net Income 47.24 -60.51 -60.51 -42.71 -167.8 143.4 507.4 214.3 -0.411 -5.61 -2.51 -5.35
Net Margin -5.06% -18.75% -18.75% -15.07% -58.03% 23.17% 51.12% 50.82% -1.26% -26.25% -13.4% -29.26%
Cash from Operating Activities 71.64 -101.6 -101.6 21.06 27 253.5 538.6 140.6 5.52 -0.675 1.33 4.41
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 11.58% -31.5% -31.5% 7.43% 9.34% 40.96% 54.26% 33.35% 16.96% -3.16% 7.11% 24.1%
Capital Expenditure -18.18 -22.57 -22.57 -40.31 -22.21 -18.77 -23.84 -36.51 -1.18 -2.83 -5.36 -3.79
Free Cash Flow 53.47 -124.2 -124.2 -19.25 4.8 234.7 514.7 104.1 4.33 -3.51 -4.03 0.617

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Intrinsic Valuation
An intrinsic valuation model calculates a value per share by using company intrinsic data and will not be influenced by market price or any pricing multiples.

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth

This model estimates the fair value of a share by discounting projected Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), also known as Unlevered Free Cash Flow.

The terminal value assumes cashflow grows at a constant Growth in Perpetuity rate forever.

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Earnings Power Value

Earnings Power Value

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Earnings power value is a method of valuing the stocks of a company, assuming that the current earnings are sustainable, and there is no future growth.

The model was developed by Columbia University Professor Bruce Greenwald, a renowned financial economist and value investor who, through this valuation technique, tries to overcome the main challenge in discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis related to making assumptions about future growth, cost of capital, profit margins, and required investments.

Simple Dividend Discount Model

Simple Dividend Discount Model

This model estimates the value of companies that have reached maturity and pay stable dividends as a significant percentage of their free cash flow to equity, with no share buybacks or high growth expectancy.

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Dividend Discount Models

Simple Excess Return Model

Simple Excess Return Model

This model is used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no chance of high growth.

Note: Excess return models are better suited for estimating the fair value of financial companies compared to enterprise valuation models, such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model.

See Valuing Financial Service Firms

Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

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This model is designed to value the equity in a firm, with two stages of growth.

  1. An initial period of high growth, represented by the Sum of discounted dividends.
  2. A subsequent period of stable growth, represented by the Discounted terminal value per share.

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Dividend Discount Models

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

This model is only available with a paid subscription plan.

This model is used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth:

  1. An initial period of high growth, represented by the Sum of discounted excess returns.
  2. A subsequent period of stable growth, represented by the Discounted terminal value.

Note: Excess return models are better suited for estimating the fair value of financial companies compared to enterprise valuation models, such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model.

See Valuing Financial Service Firms
Multiples Valuation
A multiples valuation model combines both company intrinsic data and market price multiples.

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple

This model estimates the fair value of a share by discounting projected Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), also known as Unlevered Free Cash Flow.

The Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple is applied to the company’s projected EBITDA in the final forecast year to estimate the terminal Enterprise Value (EV).

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Discounted Future Market Cap

Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the future market capitalization using the estimated P/E ratio, then discounting it to the present using an annual required rate of return (referred to as the discount rate).

Peter Lynch Fair Value

Peter Lynch Fair Value

This model is only available with a paid subscription plan.

Peter Lynch Fair Value applies to growing companies. The ideal range for the growth rate is between 10% and 20% a year.

It is computed by multiplying PEG Ratio, which according to Peter Lynch should always equal to 1 (so it can be ignored), EPS LTM, and Earnings Growth Rate. The resulting model value shows whether the company is currently trading at its fair value or not.
Risk Analysis
A risk analysis model provides information about the level of risk in a company, the cost of capital, liquidity ratios, margins and other risk related ratios.

Altman Z-Score

Altman Z-Score

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The Altman Z-score is a formula for determining whether a company, notably in the manufacturing space, is headed for bankruptcy.

Read more: Altman’s Z-Score Model

Beneish M-Score

Beneish M-Score

This model is only available with a paid subscription plan.

Beneish’s M-Score is a mathematical model that uses eight financial ratios weighted by coefficients to identify whether a company has manipulated its profits.

Read more: Beneish M-Score

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

The Capital Asset Pricing Model describes the relationship between risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks. Its formula is used to calculate the cost of equity, or the rate of return a company is expected to pay to equity investors.

Margin Analysis

Margin Analysis

Margins refer to the ratio between a financial report item and the revenue (example: Net Income Margin = Net Income / Revenue).

This analysis provides annual and quarterly sections for reporting key financial margins.

Piotroski F-Score

Piotroski F-Score

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The Piotroski score, also known as the Piotroski F-score, is a discrete score that ranges from 0 to 9 and reflects nine criteria that are used to gauge the strength of a firm’s financial position.

Read more: Understanding Piotroski Score

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

The return on capital or invested capital in a business attempts to measure the return earned on capital invested in an investment.

Read more on Aswath Damodaran - Return Measures PDF

Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio

Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio

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The CAPE Ratio (also known as the Shiller P/E or PE 10 Ratio) is an acronym for the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio.

Read more about the CAPE Ratio

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

WACC is a financial metric that helps in calculating a firm’s cost of financing by combining the cost of debt and cost of equity structure together.

Read more: Understanding WACC

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