Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) Discounted Future Market Cap

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.

HII (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	549.6 USD
Estimated net income	1.03 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	28.06 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	21.6 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	39.3 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	15.39 USD
Market Price	417.5 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	27.12

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 7068000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 7441000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 8176000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 8899000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 9361000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 9524000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 10676000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 11454000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 11535000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 12484000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 13164128320, "oy": 13164128320, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 13881310030, "oy": 13881310030, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 14637563801, "oy": 14637563801, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 15435018277, "oy": 15435018277, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 16275918072, "oy": 16275918072, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 573000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 479000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 836000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 549000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 696000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 544000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 579000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 681000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 550000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 605000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 836711996, "oy": 836711996, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 38.3, "og": 38.3}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 882296065, "oy": 882296065, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 930363555, "oy": 930363555, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 981049761, "oy": 981049761, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 1034497352, "oy": 1034497352, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 5.45, "og": 5.45}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-12-31": 17, "2027-12-31": 18, "2028-12-31": 19, "2029-12-31": 20, "2030-12-31": 21}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-12-31	2027-12-31	2028-12-31	2029-12-31	2030-12-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Dec 31	LTM Mar 10	2026 Dec 31	2027 Dec 31	2028 Dec 31	2029 Dec 31	2030 Dec 31
Revenue	12,484	12,484	13,164	13,881	14,638	15,435	16,276
Revenue Growth Rate	8.23%	0%	5.45%	5.45%	5.45%	5.45%	5.45%
Net Income	605	605	836.7	882.3	930.4	981	1,034

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31

LTM
Mar 10

2026
Dec 31

2027
Dec 31

2028
Dec 31

2029
Dec 31

2030
Dec 31

Revenue

12,484

13,164

13,881

14,638

15,435

16,276

Revenue Growth Rate

8.23%

5.45%

Net Income

605

836.7

882.3

930.4

981

1,034

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 10	2025 Dec 31	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31
Revenue	9,918	12,484	12,484	11,535	11,454	10,676	9,524	9,361	8,899	8,176	7,441	7,068
Cost of Revenue	8,378	10,899	10,899	10,085	9,808	9,236	8,156	7,691	7,368	6,385	6,018	5,608
Gross Profit	1,541	1,585	1,585	1,450	1,646	1,440	1,368	1,670	1,531	1,791	1,423	1,460
Gross Margin	16.08%	12.7%	12.7%	12.57%	14.37%	13.49%	14.36%	17.84%	17.2%	21.91%	19.12%	20.66%
Operating Income	706.4	633	608	535	781	565	513	766	743	920	869	837
Operating Margin	7.58%	5.07%	4.87%	4.64%	6.82%	5.29%	5.39%	8.18%	8.35%	11.25%	11.68%	11.84%
Net Income	608.8	605	605	550	681	579	544	696	549	836	479	573
Net Margin	6.36%	4.85%	4.85%	4.77%	5.95%	5.42%	5.71%	7.43%	6.17%	10.23%	6.44%	8.11%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 10	2025 Dec 31	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31
Revenue	9,918	12,484	12,484	11,535	11,454	10,676	9,524	9,361	8,899	8,176	7,441	7,068
Revenue Growth Rate	5.45%	0%	8.23%	0.707%	7.29%	12.1%	1.74%	5.19%	8.84%	9.88%	5.28%	0.684%
Net Income	608.8	605	605	550	681	579	544	696	549	836	479	573
Net Margin	6.36%	4.85%	4.85%	4.77%	5.95%	5.42%	5.71%	7.43%	6.17%	10.23%	6.44%	8.11%
Net Income Growth Rate	7.76%	0%	10%	-19.24%	17.62%	6.43%	-21.84%	26.78%	-34.33%	74.53%	-16.4%	41.83%
Stockholders Equity	3,056	5,073	5,073	4,666	4,093	3,489	2,808	1,901	1,588	1,516	1,758	1,653
Equity Growth Rate	12.72%	0%	8.72%	14%	17.31%	24.25%	47.71%	19.71%	4.75%	-13.77%	6.35%	10.94%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	10.07%	5.52%	10.59%	5.5%	8.04%	6.07%	5.92%	12.15%	11.79%	18.36%	12.59%	14.26%
After-tax Operating Income	559	492.9	473.4	457.6	623.5	455	448.7	658.2	597.2	792.1	539.2	611.7
Income Tax Rate	20.31%	22.14%	22.14%	14.46%	20.16%	19.47%	12.54%	14.07%	19.62%	13.9%	37.95%	26.91%
Invested Capital	6,174	8,930	4,469	8,319	7,753	7,495	7,573	5,419	5,066	4,314	4,282	4,289

Market is Open

After-Hours Quote

Market is Open

After-Hours Quote

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Beta

Beta

Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

Market Premium

Market Premium

Pe Ratio

Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Net Income Margin

Net Income Margin

Historical Years

Historical Years

Projection Years

Projection Years

Results

Historical and forecasted data

Estimated Future Values

Historical Values

Historical Growth Rates

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth

Earnings Power Value

Simple Dividend Discount Model

Simple Excess Return Model

Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple

Discounted Future Market Cap

Peter Lynch Fair Value

Altman Z-Score

Beneish M-Score

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Margin Analysis

Piotroski F-Score

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)