Hailiang Education Group Inc. (HLG) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
HLG
Hailiang Education Group Inc.
HLG (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 2.83 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 1.29 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 696.7 Mil. USD
Enterprise Value 1.98 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 43.26 Mil. USD
Total Debt 12.59 Mil. USD
Equity Value 2.09 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 26.15 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 79.79 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.22%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 36.77%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -15.97%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2022-06-30 2023-06-30 2024-06-30 2025-06-30 2026-06-30 2027-06-30 2028-06-30 2029-06-30 2030-06-30 2031-06-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2022
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2025
Jun 30
2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
2031
Jun 30
Revenue 244.2 277.2 311.4 346.2 380.9 414.7 446.6 475.8 501.4 522.6
Revenue Growth Rate 14.66% 13.5% 12.34% 11.18% 10.02% 8.86% 7.7% 6.54% 5.38% 4.22%
Operating Cash Flow 89.81 101.9 114.5 127.3 140.1 152.5 164.2 175 184.4 192.2
Operating Cash Flow Margin 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77% 36.77%
Capital Expenditure -39.01 -44.27 -49.73 -55.29 -60.83 -66.22 -71.32 -75.99 -80.08 -83.46
Capital Expenditure Margin -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97% -15.97%
Free Cash Flow 50.8 57.66 64.78 72.02 79.23 86.25 92.9 98.97 104.3 108.7
Free Cash Flow Margin 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 3.12% 11.6% 20.8% 30.73% 41.47% 53.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 50.8 57.66 64.78 72.02 76.84 77.29 76.9 75.71 73.72 71

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 08
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
2015
Jun 30
2014
Jun 30
2013
Jun 30
2012
Jun 30
Revenue 138.5 198.3 213 209.8 218.3 176.7 125.9 98.37 82.98 74.55 71.14 54.99
Revenue Growth Rate 14.77% -6.91% 1.54% -3.89% 23.53% 40.38% 27.95% 18.54% 11.31% 4.79% 29.37% 15.82%
Cost of Revenue 89.53 105 112.8 139.1 149.5 121.6 95.25 73.9 53.93 48.28 47.82 37.61
Gross Profit 49.01 93.28 100.2 70.66 68.74 55.1 30.61 24.47 29.06 26.27 23.32 17.39
Gross Margin 34.03% 47.04% 47.04% 33.69% 31.5% 31.19% 24.32% 24.88% 35.02% 35.24% 32.78% 31.62%
Operating Income 41.81 88.32 94.88 66.18 58.18 42.38 23.73 16.37 21.58 19.43 17.36 11.57
Operating Margin 27.66% 44.54% 44.54% 31.55% 26.65% 23.98% 18.85% 16.65% 26% 26.06% 24.4% 21.03%
Net Income 28.85 33.88 36.4 52.47 42.72 33.63 24.74 14.95 22.73 22.66 20.06 13.06
Net Margin 22.04% 17.09% 17.09% 25.01% 19.57% 19.04% 19.66% 15.2% 27.39% 30.4% 28.19% 23.75%
Cash from Operating Activities 51.75 0 138.3 60.99 100.5 88.84 42.33 32.51 38.06 24.07 24.5 19.15
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 36.77% 0% 64.94% 29.07% 46.05% 50.28% 33.63% 33.05% 45.87% 32.28% 34.44% 34.83%
Capital Expenditure -21.46 0 -18.66 -90.19 -11.92 -13.5 -16.07 -52.13 -23.45 -1.42 -2.55 -6.19
Free Cash Flow 30.29 0 119.7 -29.2 88.59 75.33 26.25 -19.61 14.61 22.65 21.95 12.96
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Discounting Cash Flows

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