Hailiang Education Group Inc. (HLG) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
HLG
Hailiang Education Group Inc.
HLG (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Stable Return On Equity

Stable Return on Equity

The stable Return On Equity (ROE) estimated after the last projected period.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 182.6 USD
Book value of equity invested 13.03 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 11.55 USD
Terminal stage EPS 4.03 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 20.56 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.852 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 158 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 193.5 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 4.14%
Terminal year's excess return 3.18 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 19.61%
Average historical Payout Ratio 0%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 87.25%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.22%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2022-06-30 2023-06-30 2024-06-30 2025-06-30 2026-06-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2021
Jun 30
LTM
Feb 08
2022
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2025
Jun 30
2026
Jun 30
Beginning Book Value 11.11 13.22 13.22 15.36 17.32 18.94 20.06
Ending Book Value 13.22 13.03 15.36 17.32 18.94 20.06 20.56
EPS 1.41 1.32 2.59 3.01 3.4 3.71 3.93
Return on Equity 12.7% 9.94% 19.61% 19.61% 19.61% 19.61% 19.61%
Dividend per Share
0.452 1.05 1.78 2.59 3.43
Payout Ratio 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 34.9% 52.35% 69.8% 87.25%
Retained Earnings
2.14 1.96 1.62 1.12 0.501
Equity Cost 0.46 0.548 0.548 0.636 0.717 0.785 0.831
Cost of Equity 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14% 4.14%
Excess Return 0.95 0.772 2.04 2.38 2.68 2.93 3.1
Discounted Excess Return
1.96 2.19 2.37 2.49 2.53

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 08
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
2015
Jun 30
2014
Jun 30
2013
Jun 30
2012
Jun 30
Net Income 28.85 33.88 36.4 52.47 42.72 33.63 24.74 14.95 22.73 22.66 20.06 13.06
Total Stockholders Equity 197.9 340.7 340.7 286.5 240.5 199.7 162.5 138.6 112.5 89.7 67.74
Return on Equity 19.61% 9.94% 12.7% 21.82% 21.39% 20.7% 17.85% 13.29% 25.34% 33.45% 19.61% 19.61%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders
Payout Ratio 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45% 17.45%
Shares Outstanding 25.63 26.15 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.7 25.65 24.24 25.67 25.67 25.67
Earnings per Share 1.13 1.32 1.41 2.04 1.66 1.3 0.963 0.584 0.938 0.883 0.781 0.508
Dividend per Share
Dividend Growth Rate
Book Value 7.69 13.03 13.22 11.11 9.33 7.75 6.32 5.4 4.64 3.49 2.64
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