JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 257.7 USD
Book value of equity invested 124.6 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 25.41 USD
Terminal stage EPS 22.38 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 163.7 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 14.62 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 107.7 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 165.2 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.93%
Terminal year's excess return 7.75 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 13.67%
Average historical Payout Ratio 29.02%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 68.98%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 111.6 120.0 120.0 130.3 140.1 149.1 157.0
Ending Book Value 120.0 124.6 130.3 140.1 149.1 157.0 163.7
EPS 19.79 20.41 16.4 17.81 19.15 20.38 21.47
Return on Equity 17.83% 17.32% 13.67% 13.67% 13.67% 13.67% 13.67%
Dividend per Share 4.6 5.3 6.07 8.02 10.15 12.43 14.81
Payout Ratio 23.24% 25.97% 37.01% 45.01% 53% 60.99% 68.98%
Retained Earnings 15.19 15.11 10.33 9.79 9.0 7.95 6.66
Equity Cost 9.97 10.72 10.72 11.64 12.52 13.32 14.03
Cost of Equity 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93%
Excess Return 9.82 9.69 5.68 6.17 6.63 7.06 7.44
Discounted Excess Return
5.22 5.2 5.13 5.01 4.85

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 38,671 59,695 58,471 49,552 37,676 48,334 29,131 36,431 32,474 24,441 24,733 24,442
Total Stockholders Equity 287,743 351,420 344,758 327,878 292,332 294,127 279,354 261,330 256,515 255,693 254,190 247,573
Return on Equity 13.67% 17.32% 17.83% 16.95% 12.81% 17.3% 11.15% 14.2% 12.7% 9.62% 9.99% 10.55%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 10,313 14,943 13,220 11,901 11,863 11,180 11,097 10,631 8,423 7,296 6,658 6,229
Payout Ratio 29.02% 25.97% 23.24% 24.92% 33.06% 24.04% 40.49% 30.7% 27.43% 32.13% 29.49% 27.77%
Shares Outstanding 3,202 2,819 2,874 2,939 2,966 3,022 3,082 3,222 3,396 3,576 3,618 3,708
Earnings per Share 11.93 20.41 19.79 16.25 12.1 15.39 8.89 10.75 9.04 6.35 6.24 6.05
Dividend per Share 3.33 5.3 4.6 4.05 4 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.48 2.04 1.84 1.68
Dividend Growth Rate 12.07% 15.22% 13.58% 1.25% 8.11% 2.78% 9.09% 33.06% 21.57% 10.87% 9.52% 7.69%
Book Value 91.63 124.6 120.0 111.6 98.57 97.34 90.63 81.12 75.53 71.49 70.25 66.77
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Discounting Cash Flows

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