Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
MTL.TO
Mullen Group Ltd.
MTL.TO (TSX)

Estimated Value

CAD

Market Price CAD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 7.95 Bil. CAD
Discounted Terminal Value 3.6 Bil. CAD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 1.78 Bil. CAD
Enterprise Value 5.38 Bil. CAD
Cash and Equivalents 151.2 Mil. CAD
Total Debt 1.19 Bil. CAD
Equity Value 4.35 Bil. CAD
Shares Outstanding 87.21 Mil. CAD
Estimated Value per Share 49.84 CAD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.24%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.68%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -4.74%

Monetary values in CAD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 2,081 2,176 2,275 2,377 2,482 2,592 2,705 2,822 2,942 3,067
Revenue Growth Rate 4.61% 4.57% 4.53% 4.49% 4.45% 4.4% 4.36% 4.32% 4.28% 4.24%
Operating Cash Flow 305.5 319.4 333.9 348.9 364.4 380.4 397 414.2 431.9 450.3
Operating Cash Flow Margin 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68% 14.68%
Capital Expenditure -98.62 -103.1 -107.8 -112.6 -117.6 -122.8 -128.2 -133.7 -139.4 -145.4
Capital Expenditure Margin -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74% -4.74%
Free Cash Flow 206.9 216.3 226.1 236.3 246.8 257.6 268.9 280.5 292.5 304.9
Free Cash Flow Margin 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 9.94%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.56% 16.42% 26.04% 36.43% 47.67% 59.84% 73.05% 87.31% 102.7%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 206.9 201.1 194.2 187.4 180.9 174.5 168.2 162.1 156.2 150.4

Monetary values in CAD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 29
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 1,514 2,099 1,989 1,995 1,999 1,477 1,164 1,279 1,261 1,138 1,035 1,214
Revenue Growth Rate 4.61% 5.51% -0.274% -0.237% 35.33% 26.89% -8.93% 1.4% 10.74% 9.99% -14.77% -14.95%
Cost of Revenue 1,173 1,610 1,517 1,521 1,540 1,169 898.1 1,021 990.3 897.9 797.1 938.3
Gross Profit 341 488.5 472.7 473.9 459 308.1 266.2 257.1 270.5 240.5 237.9 276.1
Gross Margin 22.35% 23.28% 23.76% 23.76% 22.96% 20.85% 22.86% 20.11% 21.45% 21.13% 22.99% 22.74%
Operating Income 142 181.5 201.3 212.3 214.4 123.5 116.7 94.65 101.5 85.58 95.73 135.2
Operating Margin 9.26% 8.65% 10.12% 10.64% 10.72% 8.36% 10.02% 7.4% 8.05% 7.52% 9.25% 11.13%
Net Income 72.61 95.33 112.3 136.7 158.6 72.44 63.98 72.24 -43.79 65.51 52.04 13.37
Net Margin 4.49% 4.54% 5.64% 6.85% 7.93% 4.9% 5.5% 5.65% -3.47% 5.75% 5.03% 1.1%
Cash from Operating Activities 220.6 328.5 296.1 276.7 263 198 224.8 170.7 140.7 142.1 174.3 211.6
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.68% 15.65% 14.89% 13.87% 13.15% 13.4% 19.31% 13.35% 11.16% 12.48% 16.84% 17.42%
Capital Expenditure -70.94 -87.12 -71.51 -101.6 -81.41 -68.2 -65.17 -75.38 -102.7 -33.06 -20.94 -73.29
Free Cash Flow 149.6 241.3 224.6 175.1 181.6 129.8 159.7 95.27 38.03 109 153.4 138.3
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Discounting Cash Flows

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