Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
NFLX (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out Nathan's YouTube Channel

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value -36.23 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value -16.49 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow -6.64 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value -23.13 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 9.29 Bil. USD
Total Debt 14.46 Bil. USD
Equity Value -28.27 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 4.24 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share -6.66 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.19%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 0.513%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -1.61%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 47,203 56,246 65,970 76,141 86,454 96,547 106,012 114,421 121,356 126,441
Revenue Growth Rate 21.03% 19.16% 17.29% 15.42% 13.55% 11.67% 9.8% 7.93% 6.06% 4.19%
Operating Cash Flow 242.2 288.5 338.4 390.6 443.5 495.3 543.8 587 622.6 648.6
Operating Cash Flow Margin 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513% 0.513%
Capital Expenditure -761.4 -907.3 -1,064 -1,228 -1,395 -1,557 -1,710 -1,846 -1,957 -2,039
Capital Expenditure Margin -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61% -1.61%
Free Cash Flow -519.2 -618.7 -725.7 -837.5 -951 -1,062 -1,166 -1,259 -1,335 -1,391
Free Cash Flow Margin -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 8% 16.85% 26.45% 36.8% 48.01% 60.13% 73.28% 87.47% 102.8%
Discounted Free Cash Flow -519.2 -572.9 -621 -662.4 -695.2 -717.6 -728.3 -726.4 -712.1 -685.7

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 08
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 24,151 43,379 39,001 33,723 31,616 29,698 24,996 20,156 15,794 11,693 8,831 6,780
Revenue Growth Rate 21.03% 11.22% 15.65% 6.67% 6.46% 18.81% 24.01% 27.62% 35.08% 32.41% 30.26% 23.16%
Cost of Revenue 14,158 22,520 21,038 19,715 19,168 17,333 15,276 12,440 9,968 7,660 6,030 4,591
Gross Profit 9,993 20,859 17,963 14,008 12,447 12,365 9,720 7,716 5,827 4,033 2,801 2,188
Gross Margin 39.02% 48.09% 46.06% 41.54% 39.37% 41.64% 38.89% 38.28% 36.89% 34.49% 31.72% 32.27%
Operating Income 4,742 12,643 10,418 6,954 5,633 6,195 4,585 2,604 1,605 838.7 379.8 305.8
Operating Margin 15.69% 29.14% 26.71% 20.62% 17.82% 20.86% 18.34% 12.92% 10.16% 7.17% 4.3% 4.51%
Net Income 3,715 10,431 8,712 5,408 4,492 5,116 2,761 1,867 1,211 558.9 186.7 122.6
Net Margin 11.87% 24.05% 22.34% 16.04% 14.21% 17.23% 11.05% 9.26% 7.67% 4.78% 2.11% 1.81%
Cash from Operating Activities 1,771 9,575 7,361 7,274 2,026 392.6 2,427 -2,887 -2,680 -1,786 -1,474 -749.4
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 0.514% 22.07% 18.87% 21.57% 6.41% 1.32% 9.71% -14.32% -16.97% -15.27% -16.69% -11.05%
Capital Expenditure -352 -607.6 -439.5 -348.6 -407.7 -524.6 -497.9 -253 -212.5 -227 -184.8 -169.2
Free Cash Flow 1,419 8,967 6,922 6,926 1,619 -132 1,929 -3,140 -2,893 -2,013 -1,659 -918.6
discounting cash flows home logo

Discounting Cash Flows

Are you finding our services helpful? Review us on trustpilot logo Trustpilot
Have a question? Contact us
Want to become our sponsor?
Check out our Affiliate Program