One97 Communications Limited (PAYTM.NS) Discounted Future Market Cap

One97 Communications Limited

PAYTM.NS (NSE)

Valuation
One97 Communications Limited Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Model Info

Estimated Value

INR

Market Price INR

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	0 INR
Estimated net income	0 INR
Estimated market capitalization	0 INR
Market capitalization discounted to present	0 INR
Shares Outstanding	640 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	-9.49 INR
Market Price	1.17 Thou. INR
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-123.6

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in INR

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 6146200000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 30529000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 32320000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 32808000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 28024000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 49742000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 79903000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 99778000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 69004000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 86255000000, "oy": 86255000000, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 107818750000, "oy": 107818750000, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 134773437500, "oy": 134773437500, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 168466796875, "oy": 168466796875, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 210583496093, "oy": 210583496093, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 25.0, "og": 25.0}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": -8996400000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": -15894600000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": -41816000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": -28422000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": -16961000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": -23929000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": -17759000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": -14170000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": -6587000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 0.0, "oy": 0.0, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -100.0, "og": -100.0}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 0.0, "oy": 0.0, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": null, "og": null}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 0.0, "oy": 0.0, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": null, "og": null}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 0.0, "oy": 0.0, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": null, "og": null}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 0.0, "oy": 0.0, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": null, "og": null}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-03-31": 10, "2027-03-31": 11, "2028-03-31": 12, "2029-03-31": 13, "2030-03-31": 14}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-03-31	2027-03-31	2028-03-31	2029-03-31	2030-03-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in INR amounts except #	2025 Mar 31	LTM Jan 29	2026 Mar 31	2027 Mar 31	2028 Mar 31	2029 Mar 31	2030 Mar 31
Revenue	69,004	77,178	86,255	107,819	134,773	168,467	210,583
Revenue Growth Rate	-30.84%	11.85%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%
Net Income	-6,587	-6,046	0	0	0	0	0

Monetary values in INR

amounts except #

2025
Mar 31

LTM
Jan 29

2026
Mar 31

2027
Mar 31

2028
Mar 31

2029
Mar 31

2030
Mar 31

Revenue

69,004

77,178

86,255

107,819

134,773

168,467

210,583

Revenue Growth Rate

-30.84%

11.85%

25%

Net Income

-6,587

-6,046

Historical Values

Monetary values in INR amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 29	2025 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31	2022 Mar 31	2021 Mar 31	2020 Mar 31	2019 Mar 31	2018 Mar 31	2017 Mar 31
Revenue	50,543	77,178	69,004	99,778	79,903	49,742	28,024	32,808	32,320	30,529	6,146
Cost of Revenue	41,665	54,746	55,065	79,647	68,158	52,204	31,215	34,163	31,455	6,500	3,501
Gross Profit	8,878	22,432	13,939	20,131	11,745	-2,462	-3,191	-1,355	865	24,029	2,645
Gross Margin	18.81%	29.07%	20.2%	20.18%	14.7%	-4.95%	-11.39%	-4.13%	2.68%	78.71%	43.04%
Operating Income	-9,346	8,834	806	4,300	-6,035	-16,116	-12,107	-19,077	-36,442	1,538	-19,159
Operating Margin	-54.38%	11.45%	1.17%	4.31%	-7.55%	-32.4%	-43.2%	-58.15%	-112.8%	5.04%	-311.7%
Net Income	-18,058	-6,046	-6,587	-14,170	-17,759	-23,929	-16,961	-28,422	-41,816	-15,895	-8,996
Net Margin	-57.69%	-7.83%	-9.55%	-14.2%	-22.23%	-48.11%	-60.52%	-86.63%	-129.4%	-52.06%	-146.4%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in INR amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 29	2025 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31	2022 Mar 31	2021 Mar 31	2020 Mar 31	2019 Mar 31	2018 Mar 31	2017 Mar 31
Revenue	50,543	77,178	69,004	99,778	79,903	49,742	28,024	32,808	32,320	30,529	6,146
Revenue Growth Rate	59.28%	11.85%	-30.84%	24.87%	60.63%	77.5%	-14.58%	1.51%	5.87%	396.7%
Net Income	-18,058	-6,046	-6,587	-14,170	-17,759	-23,929	-16,961	-28,422	-41,816	-15,895	-8,996
Net Margin	-57.69%	-7.83%	-9.55%	-14.2%	-22.23%	-48.11%	-60.52%	-86.63%	-129.4%	-52.06%	-146.4%
Net Income Growth Rate	11.2%	-8.21%	-53.51%	-20.21%	-25.78%	41.08%	-40.32%	-32.03%	163.1%	76.68%
Stockholders Equity	101,087	153,400	150,267	133,266	130,156	141,516	65,348	81,052	57,249	74,838	23,776
Equity Growth Rate	37.7%	2.08%	12.76%	2.39%	-8.03%	116.6%	-19.38%	41.58%	-23.5%	214.8%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	-20.09%	20.36%	2.24%	4.71%	-6.05%	-12.19%	-18.8%	-23.1%	-63.62%	2.1%	-106.5%
After-tax Operating Income	-9,316	9,143	828.5	4,399	-6,151	-16,192	-12,126	-18,975	-36,386	1,540	-19,236
Income Tax Rate	-1.1%	-3.5%	-2.79%	-2.3%	-1.93%	-0.474%	-0.159%	0.534%	0.154%	-0.097%	-0.402%
Invested Capital	70,497	44,900	37,041	93,466	101,669	132,801	64,493	82,139	57,194	73,200	18,069