PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
PEP (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 322.6 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 146.8 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 73.91 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 220.7 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 8.13 Bil. USD
Total Debt 50.85 Bil. USD
Equity Value 178.5 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 1.37 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 130.4 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.19%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.66%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -5.24%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 94,711 97,772 101,049 104,557 108,312 112,331 116,634 121,242 126,176 131,463
Revenue Growth Rate 3.11% 3.23% 3.35% 3.47% 3.59% 3.71% 3.83% 3.95% 4.07% 4.19%
Operating Cash Flow 13,885 14,333 14,814 15,328 15,879 16,468 17,099 17,774 18,497 19,273
Operating Cash Flow Margin 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66% 14.66%
Capital Expenditure -4,962 -5,122 -5,294 -5,478 -5,674 -5,885 -6,110 -6,352 -6,610 -6,887
Capital Expenditure Margin -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24% -5.24%
Free Cash Flow 8,923 9,211 9,520 9,850 10,204 10,583 10,988 11,422 11,887 12,385
Free Cash Flow Margin 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42% 9.42%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.98% 16.82% 26.42% 36.77% 47.97% 60.09% 73.24% 87.43% 102.8%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 8,923 8,530 8,149 7,792 7,461 7,152 6,864 6,593 6,342 6,108

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 09
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 75,740 92,364 91,853 91,468 86,403 79,480 70,372 67,162 64,660 63,525 62,801 63,053
Revenue Growth Rate 3.11% 0.556% 0.421% 5.86% 8.71% 12.94% 4.78% 3.87% 1.79% 1.15% -0.4% -5.44%
Cost of Revenue 34,545 42,326 41,491 41,640 40,805 36,932 31,760 30,012 29,385 28,782 28,322 28,544
Gross Profit 41,195 50,038 50,362 49,828 45,598 42,548 38,612 37,150 35,275 34,743 34,479 34,509
Gross Margin 54.44% 54.17% 54.83% 54.48% 52.77% 53.53% 54.87% 55.31% 54.55% 54.69% 54.9% 54.73%
Operating Income 11,491 13,247 14,295 14,087 11,342 11,459 10,415 10,648 10,400 10,298 10,148 10,063
Operating Margin 15.26% 14.34% 15.56% 15.4% 13.13% 14.42% 14.8% 15.85% 16.08% 16.21% 16.16% 15.96%
Net Income 7,817 7,223 9,578 9,074 8,910 7,618 7,120 7,314 12,515 4,857 6,329 5,452
Net Margin 10.44% 7.82% 10.43% 9.92% 10.31% 9.59% 10.12% 10.89% 19.36% 7.65% 10.08% 8.65%
Cash from Operating Activities 10,981 11,755 12,507 13,442 10,811 11,616 10,613 9,649 9,415 9,994 10,404 10,580
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.66% 12.73% 13.62% 14.7% 12.51% 14.61% 15.08% 14.37% 14.56% 15.73% 16.57% 16.78%
Capital Expenditure -3,969 -2,468 -5,318 -5,518 -5,207 -4,625 -4,240 -4,232 -3,282 -2,969 -3,040 -2,758
Free Cash Flow 7,012 9,287 7,189 7,924 5,604 6,991 6,373 5,417 6,133 7,025 7,364 7,822
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Discounting Cash Flows

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