Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
PM (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 393.1 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 179.3 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 90.63 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 269.9 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 4.04 Bil. USD
Total Debt 50.08 Bil. USD
Equity Value 223.8 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 1.56 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 143.8 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.17%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 31.82%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -3.64%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 38,970 40,150 41,423 42,795 44,274 45,867 47,583 49,431 51,422 53,566
Revenue Growth Rate 2.88% 3.03% 3.17% 3.31% 3.46% 3.6% 3.74% 3.88% 4.03% 4.17%
Operating Cash Flow 12,400 12,776 13,181 13,617 14,088 14,595 15,141 15,729 16,362 17,045
Operating Cash Flow Margin 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82% 31.82%
Capital Expenditure -1,418 -1,461 -1,507 -1,557 -1,611 -1,669 -1,731 -1,798 -1,871 -1,949
Capital Expenditure Margin -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64% -3.64%
Free Cash Flow 10,983 11,315 11,674 12,060 12,477 12,926 13,410 13,931 14,492 15,096
Free Cash Flow Margin 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.8% 16.61% 26.16% 36.47% 47.62% 59.68% 72.76% 86.87% 102.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 10,983 10,497 10,011 9,560 9,143 8,757 8,398 8,064 7,755 7,468

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 16
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 31,501 39,940 37,878 35,174 31,762 31,405 28,694 29,805 29,625 28,748 26,685 26,794
Revenue Growth Rate 2.88% 5.44% 7.69% 10.74% 1.14% 9.45% -3.73% 0.608% 3.05% 7.73% -0.407% -9.99%
Cost of Revenue 11,014 13,470 13,329 12,893 11,402 10,030 9,569 10,513 10,758 10,432 9,391 9,365
Gross Profit 20,487 26,470 24,549 22,281 20,360 21,375 19,125 19,292 18,867 18,316 17,294 17,429
Gross Margin 65.02% 66.27% 64.81% 63.35% 64.1% 68.06% 66.65% 64.73% 63.69% 63.71% 64.81% 65.05%
Operating Income 11,992 15,050 13,402 11,556 12,246 12,972 11,720 10,531 11,336 11,576 10,903 10,623
Operating Margin 38.27% 37.68% 35.38% 32.85% 38.56% 41.31% 40.84% 35.33% 38.26% 40.27% 40.86% 39.65%
Net Income 7,693 8,612 7,034 7,791 9,048 9,109 8,056 7,185 7,911 6,035 6,967 6,873
Net Margin 24.67% 21.56% 18.57% 22.15% 28.49% 29% 28.08% 24.11% 26.7% 20.99% 26.11% 25.65%
Cash from Operating Activities 9,996 11,526 12,217 9,204 10,803 11,967 9,812 10,090 9,478 8,912 8,077 7,865
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 31.82% 28.86% 32.25% 26.17% 34.01% 38.11% 34.2% 33.85% 31.99% 31% 30.27% 29.35%
Capital Expenditure -1,142 -1,403 -1,444 -1,321 -1,077 -748 -602 -852 -1,436 -1,548 -1,172 -960
Free Cash Flow 8,853 10,123 10,773 7,883 9,726 11,219 9,210 9,238 8,042 7,364 6,905 6,905
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Discounting Cash Flows

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