Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
PROV (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 866.1 Mil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 392.4 Mil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 205.2 Mil. USD
Enterprise Value 597.6 Mil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 49.41 Mil. USD
Total Debt 213.1 Mil. USD
Equity Value 434.2 Mil. USD
Shares Outstanding 6.46 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 67.16 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.24%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 50.45%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -1.5%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-06-30 2027-06-30 2028-06-30 2029-06-30 2030-06-30 2031-06-30 2032-06-30 2033-06-30 2034-06-30 2035-06-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
2031
Jun 30
2032
Jun 30
2033
Jun 30
2034
Jun 30
2035
Jun 30
Revenue 59.09 58.44 58.19 58.33 58.85 59.78 61.12 62.89 65.14 67.9
Revenue Growth Rate -1.77% -1.1% -0.432% 0.235% 0.903% 1.57% 2.24% 2.9% 3.57% 4.24%
Operating Cash Flow 29.81 29.48 29.36 29.43 29.69 30.16 30.83 31.73 32.86 34.26
Operating Cash Flow Margin 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45% 50.45%
Capital Expenditure -0.888 -0.878 -0.874 -0.876 -0.884 -0.898 -0.918 -0.945 -0.978 -1.02
Capital Expenditure Margin -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5% -1.5%
Free Cash Flow 28.92 28.61 28.48 28.55 28.81 29.26 29.91 30.78 31.88 33.24
Free Cash Flow Margin 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95% 48.95%
Compounded Discount Rate 3.46% 11.99% 21.24% 31.23% 42.05% 53.75% 66.46% 80.17% 95.02% 111.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 27.96 25.54 23.49 21.75 20.28 19.03 17.97 17.09 16.35 15.74

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 24
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Revenue 56.94 60.14 60.16 58.67 50.07 39.45 39.77 46.98 56.89 64.61 73.24 76.36
Revenue Growth Rate -1.77% -0.025% 2.53% 17.18% 26.93% -0.825% -15.33% -17.43% -11.95% -11.78% -4.09% -4.64%
Cost of Revenue 9.47 20.32 20.49 19.74 9.38 0.673 3.85 7.17 5.73 5.88 5.64 5.26
Gross Profit 47.47 39.82 39.67 38.93 40.69 38.77 35.92 39.8 51.16 58.73 67.6 71.11
Gross Margin 83.58% 66.22% 65.94% 66.35% 81.26% 98.29% 90.31% 84.73% 89.92% 90.91% 92.3% 93.11%
Operating Income 9.79 8.92 8.87 10.39 12.42 12.86 10.19 10.9 5.92 5.53 8.82 12.85
Operating Margin 18.3% 14.83% 14.75% 17.7% 24.8% 32.6% 25.61% 23.21% 10.41% 8.55% 12.04% 16.82%
Net Income 6.53 6.04 6.25 7.35 8.59 9.09 7.56 7.69 4.42 2.13 5.21 7.47
Net Margin 12.41% 10.04% 10.4% 12.53% 17.16% 23.05% 19.01% 16.37% 7.76% 3.3% 7.11% 9.79%
Cash from Operating Activities 30.63 8.62 8.69 5.68 16.32 11.79 11.57 7.95 107.1 27.99 83.44 47.73
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 50.45% 14.34% 14.44% 9.69% 32.61% 29.9% 29.1% 16.93% 188.2% 43.32% 113.9% 62.51%
Capital Expenditure -0.932 -0.403 -0.53 -1.59 -0.741 -0.165 -0.225 -0.229 -0.449 -2.91 -1.49 -1.52
Free Cash Flow 29.65 8.22 8.15 4.1 15.58 11.63 11.35 7.72 106.6 25.08 81.42 46.22
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Discounting Cash Flows

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