Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
PROV (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 16.71 USD
Book value of equity invested 19.86 USD
Next year's estimated book value 19.62 USD
Present value of future excess returns -3.14 USD
Excess Return per share -0.097 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 5.6%
Average historical Return on Equity 5.09%
Average historical Payout Ratio 73.36%
Payout Ratio used 50.89%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jun 30
LTM
Jan 24
2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
Beginning Book Value 18.72 19.14 19.14 19.62 20.11 20.61 21.13
Ending Book Value 19.14 19.86 19.62 20.11 20.61 21.13 21.66
EPS 0.93 0.92 0.974 0.999 1.02 1.05 1.08
Return on Equity 4.81% 4.7% 5.09% 5.09% 5.09% 5.09% 5.09%
Dividend per Share 0.56 0.56 0.496 0.508 0.521 0.534 0.547
Retained Earnings 0.37 0.36 0.478 0.49 0.503 0.515 0.528
Equity Cost per Share 1.05 1.07 1.07 1.1 1.13 1.15 1.18
Cost of Equity 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
Excess Return -0.118 -0.152 -0.097 -0.1 -0.102 -0.105 -0.108

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 24
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Net Income 6.53 6.04 6.25 7.35 8.59 9.09 7.56 7.69 4.42 2.13 5.21 7.47
Total Equity 127.2 128.4 128.5 129.9 129.7 128.7 127.3 124 120.6 120.5 128.2 133.5
Return on Equity 5.09% 4.7% 4.81% 5.67% 6.68% 7.14% 6.1% 6.37% 3.67% 1.66% 3.9% 5.3%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 4.06 3.62 3.76 3.89 4 4.15 4.18 4.18 4.19 4.22 4.28 4.17
Payout Ratio 73.37% 60.87% 60.22% 52.83% 46.67% 45.53% 55.45% 54.37% 94.92% 200% 81.82% 54.35%
Shares Outstanding 7.35 6.46 6.72 6.94 7.14 7.4 7.46 7.47 7.49 7.54 7.92 8.35
EPS 0.894 0.92 0.93 1.06 1.2 1.23 1.01 1.03 0.59 0.28 0.66 0.92
Dividend per Share 0.553 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.5
Book Value 17.38 19.86 19.14 18.72 18.16 17.38 17.05 16.61 16.11 15.97 16.19 15.99
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