Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value -89.79 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value -40.6 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow -20.09 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value -60.69 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 54.84 Bil. USD
Total Debt 269.5 Bil. USD
Equity Value -215.8 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 1.3 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share -165.6 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 10.01%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -10.75%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-03-31 2027-03-31 2028-03-31 2029-03-31 2030-03-31 2031-03-31 2032-03-31 2033-03-31 2034-03-31 2035-03-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Mar 31
2027
Mar 31
2028
Mar 31
2029
Mar 31
2030
Mar 31
2031
Mar 31
2032
Mar 31
2033
Mar 31
2034
Mar 31
2035
Mar 31
Revenue 330,988 342,455 354,659 367,652 381,486 396,220 411,916 428,645 446,479 465,499
Revenue Growth Rate 3.36% 3.46% 3.56% 3.66% 3.76% 3.86% 3.96% 4.06% 4.16% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 33,132 34,280 35,501 36,802 38,187 39,662 41,233 42,907 44,693 46,596
Operating Cash Flow Margin 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01% 10.01%
Capital Expenditure -35,581 -36,814 -38,126 -39,523 -41,010 -42,594 -44,281 -46,079 -47,996 -50,041
Capital Expenditure Margin -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75% -10.75%
Free Cash Flow -2,449 -2,534 -2,624 -2,721 -2,823 -2,932 -3,048 -3,172 -3,304 -3,445
Free Cash Flow Margin -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74% -0.74%
Compounded Discount Rate 1.29% 9.66% 18.74% 28.55% 39.17% 50.66% 63.14% 76.62% 91.21% 107%
Discounted Free Cash Flow -2,418 -2,311 -2,210 -2,116 -2,028 -1,946 -1,868 -1,796 -1,728 -1,664

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 31
2025
Mar 31
2024
Mar 31
2023
Mar 31
2022
Mar 31
2021
Mar 31
2020
Mar 31
2019
Mar 31
2018
Mar 31
2017
Mar 31
2016
Mar 31
Revenue 277,013 319,066 320,213 297,945 279,660 257,783 245,748 277,729 272,605 276,402 247,685 252,305
Revenue Growth Rate 3.36% -0.358% 7.47% 6.54% 8.49% 4.9% -11.52% 1.88% -1.37% 11.59% -1.83% 11.23%
Cost of Revenue 225,264 261,721 256,365 236,048 232,142 208,725 202,111 227,689 223,507 224,749 204,041 200,804
Gross Profit 51,749 57,344 63,847 61,896 47,518 49,057 43,636 50,040 49,098 51,653 43,644 51,501
Gross Margin 18.66% 17.97% 19.94% 20.77% 16.99% 19.03% 17.76% 18.02% 18.01% 18.69% 17.62% 20.41%
Operating Income 24,611 28,021 31,967 35,367 20,511 24,610 19,846 22,310 22,255 22,578 17,899 25,352
Operating Margin 8.84% 8.78% 9.98% 11.87% 7.33% 9.55% 8.08% 8.03% 8.16% 8.17% 7.23% 10.05%
Net Income 22,987 29,922 31,764 32,671 18,451 23,414 20,275 18,934 16,982 23,463 16,434 20,544
Net Margin 8.23% 9.38% 9.92% 10.97% 6.6% 9.08% 8.25% 6.82% 6.23% 8.49% 6.64% 8.14%
Cash from Operating Activities 27,654 31,169 24,644 27,792 22,243 30,581 232.2 22,304 33,971 39,608 32,027 39,626
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 10.01% 9.77% 7.7% 9.33% 7.95% 11.86% 0.094% 8.03% 12.46% 14.33% 12.93% 15.71%
Capital Expenditure -29,867 -30,214 -35,049 -33,355 -27,894 -31,465 -297.1 -34,839 -33,721 -33,857 -31,784 -36,058
Free Cash Flow -2,338 954.8 -10,406 -5,563 -5,651 -884.2 -64.91 -12,536 249.9 5,751 -1,142 3,568
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Discounting Cash Flows

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