Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
TSBK
Timberland Bancorp, Inc.
TSBK (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 118.4 USD
Book value of equity invested 34.04 USD
Next year's estimated book value 34 USD
Present value of future excess returns 84.36 USD
Excess Return per share 2.59 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 5.56%
Average historical Return on Equity 13.36%
Average historical Payout Ratio 28.94%
Payout Ratio used 81.29%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.04%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Sep 30
LTM
Feb 15
2026
Sep 30
2027
Sep 30
2028
Sep 30
2029
Sep 30
2030
Sep 30
Beginning Book Value 30.53 33.17 33.17 34.0 34.85 35.72 36.61
Ending Book Value 33.17 34.04 34.0 34.85 35.72 36.61 37.53
EPS 3.68 3.86 4.43 4.54 4.66 4.77 4.89
Return on Equity 11.88% 11.62% 13.36% 13.36% 13.36% 13.36% 13.36%
Dividend per Share 1.05 1.09 3.6 3.69 3.78 3.88 3.98
Retained Earnings 2.63 2.77 0.829 0.85 0.871 0.893 0.915
Equity Cost per Share 1.7 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.94 1.99 2.04
Cost of Equity 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56% 5.56%
Excess Return 1.98 2.01 2.59 2.65 2.72 2.78 2.85

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 15
2025
Sep 30
2024
Sep 30
2023
Sep 30
2022
Sep 30
2021
Sep 30
2020
Sep 30
2019
Sep 30
2018
Sep 30
2017
Sep 30
2016
Sep 30
Net Income 22.87 30.52 29.16 24.28 27.12 23.6 27.58 24.27 24.02 16.72 14.17 10.15
Total Equity 193.3 268.4 262.6 245.4 233.1 218.6 206.9 187.6 171.1 124.7 111 96.83
Return on Equity 13.36% 11.62% 11.88% 10.42% 12.41% 11.41% 14.7% 14.19% 19.27% 15.06% 14.63% 11.39%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 6.7 8.6 8.31 7.8 7.52 8.14 8.67 6.66 6.66 5.28 3.71 2.33
Payout Ratio 28.94% 28.24% 28.53% 32.12% 27.71% 34.51% 31.42% 27.49% 27.68% 31.58% 26.13% 22.97%
Shares Outstanding 7.87 7.89 7.92 8.04 8.18 8.3 8.34 8.33 8.32 7.33 7.14 6.84
EPS 2.87 3.86 3.68 3.02 3.32 2.84 3.31 2.91 2.89 2.28 1.99 1.48
Dividend per Share 0.839 1.09 1.05 0.97 0.92 0.98 1.04 0.8 0.8 0.72 0.52 0.34
Book Value 24.29 34.04 33.17 30.53 28.51 26.32 24.81 22.53 20.56 17.0 15.55 14.15
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Discounting Cash Flows

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