Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
VRTX (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 348.7 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 158 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 56.74 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 214.7 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 4.94 Bil. USD
Total Debt 1.83 Bil. USD
Equity Value 219.2 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 255.6 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 857.5 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.24%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 26.22%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -3.75%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 14,683 19,091 24,206 29,912 36,000 42,166 48,030 53,162 57,129 59,551
Revenue Growth Rate 33.24% 30.02% 26.8% 23.57% 20.35% 17.13% 13.91% 10.68% 7.46% 4.24%
Operating Cash Flow 3,850 5,006 6,347 7,843 9,439 11,056 12,594 13,939 14,979 15,614
Operating Cash Flow Margin 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22% 26.22%
Capital Expenditure -550.3 -715.5 -907.2 -1,121 -1,349 -1,580 -1,800 -1,993 -2,141 -2,232
Capital Expenditure Margin -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75% -3.75%
Free Cash Flow 3,300 4,290 5,440 6,722 8,090 9,476 10,793 11,947 12,838 13,382
Free Cash Flow Margin 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47% 22.47%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.58% 16.45% 26.07% 36.46% 47.7% 59.88% 73.09% 87.35% 102.8%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 3,300 3,988 4,671 5,332 5,928 6,415 6,751 6,902 6,852 6,599

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 28
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 6,160 11,723 11,020 9,869 8,931 7,574 6,206 4,163 3,048 2,489 1,702 1,032
Revenue Growth Rate 33.24% 6.38% 11.66% 10.51% 17.91% 22.06% 49.07% 36.59% 22.46% 46.2% 64.89% 77.86%
Cost of Revenue 790.1 1,609 1,530 1,262 1,080 904.2 736.3 547.8 409.5 275.1 210.5 125.5
Gross Profit 5,370 10,115 9,490 8,607 7,850 6,670 5,469 3,615 2,638 2,214 1,492 906.8
Gross Margin 87.41% 86.28% 86.11% 87.21% 87.9% 88.06% 88.14% 86.84% 86.56% 88.95% 87.64% 87.84%
Operating Income 1,731 3,993 -232.9 3,832 4,307 2,782 2,856 1,198 635.1 123.2 9.94 -468.7
Operating Margin 19.23% 34.06% -2.11% 38.83% 48.23% 36.73% 46.03% 28.77% 20.84% 4.95% 0.584% -45.4%
Net Income 1,637 3,675 -535.6 3,620 3,322 2,342 2,712 1,177 2,097 263.5 -112.1 -558.1
Net Margin 20.18% 31.35% -4.86% 36.68% 37.2% 30.92% 43.7% 28.27% 68.8% 10.59% -6.58% -54.06%
Cash from Operating Activities 1,850 3,718 -492.6 3,537 4,130 2,644 3,254 1,569 1,270 844.9 236.1 -365.4
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 26.22% 31.71% -4.47% 35.84% 46.24% 34.9% 52.43% 37.7% 41.68% 33.95% 13.87% -35.4%
Capital Expenditure -197.2 -380.8 -297.7 -258.4 -204.7 -235 -259.8 -75.45 -95.52 -259.4 -56.56 -45.3
Free Cash Flow 1,652 3,337 -790.3 3,279 3,925 2,408 2,994 1,494 1,175 585.5 179.5 -410.7
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Discounting Cash Flows

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