Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
VVV
Valvoline Inc.
VVV (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 5.73 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 2.61 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 1.22 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 3.82 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 51.6 Mil. USD
Total Debt 1.67 Bil. USD
Equity Value 2.21 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 129.3 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 17.08 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.19%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 18.08%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -9.59%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-09-30 2027-09-30 2028-09-30 2029-09-30 2030-09-30 2031-09-30 2032-09-30 2033-09-30 2034-09-30 2035-09-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Sep 30
2027
Sep 30
2028
Sep 30
2029
Sep 30
2030
Sep 30
2031
Sep 30
2032
Sep 30
2033
Sep 30
2034
Sep 30
2035
Sep 30
Revenue 1,784 1,860 1,939 2,022 2,108 2,197 2,290 2,386 2,487 2,591
Revenue Growth Rate 4.29% 4.28% 4.27% 4.26% 4.25% 4.23% 4.22% 4.21% 4.2% 4.19%
Operating Cash Flow 322.5 336.3 350.6 365.6 381.1 397.2 414 431.4 449.6 468.4
Operating Cash Flow Margin 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08% 18.08%
Capital Expenditure -171.1 -178.4 -186 -193.9 -202.2 -210.7 -219.6 -228.9 -238.5 -248.5
Capital Expenditure Margin -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59% -9.59%
Free Cash Flow 151.4 157.9 164.6 171.6 178.9 186.5 194.4 202.6 211.1 219.9
Free Cash Flow Margin 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49% 8.49%
Compounded Discount Rate 5.86% 14.53% 23.94% 34.09% 45.07% 56.95% 69.84% 83.75% 98.8% 115.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 143 137.9 132.8 128 123.3 118.8 114.5 110.2 106.2 102.3

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 09
2025
Sep 30
2024
Sep 30
2023
Sep 30
2022
Sep 30
2021
Sep 30
2020
Sep 30
2019
Sep 30
2018
Sep 30
2017
Sep 30
2016
Sep 30
Revenue 1,652 1,710 1,710 1,619 1,444 1,236 1,037 727 2,390 2,285 2,084 1,929
Revenue Growth Rate 4.29% 0% 5.64% 12.16% 16.78% 19.18% 42.67% -69.58% 4.59% 9.64% 8.04% -1.93%
Cost of Revenue 1,030 1,052 1,052 1,000 899 759.7 604.9 426 1,580 1,479 1,306 1,168
Gross Profit 622.3 658.5 658.5 618.8 544.5 476.4 432.3 301 810 806 778 761
Gross Margin 38.23% 38.5% 38.5% 38.22% 37.72% 38.54% 41.68% 41.4% 33.89% 35.27% 37.33% 39.45%
Operating Income 335.2 387.6 308.6 367.2 247.2 220.3 240.1 160.2 398 395 532 431
Operating Margin 20.48% 22.66% 18.04% 22.68% 17.13% 17.82% 23.15% 22.04% 16.65% 17.29% 25.53% 22.34%
Net Income 378.6 210.7 210.7 211.5 1,420 424.3 420.3 316.6 208 166 304 273
Net Margin 27.2% 12.32% 12.32% 13.06% 98.35% 34.33% 40.52% 43.55% 8.7% 7.27% 14.59% 14.15%
Cash from Operating Activities 245.9 297.2 297.2 265.1 -40.8 284.2 403.9 371.7 325 320 -130 311
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 18.08% 17.38% 17.38% 16.37% -2.83% 22.99% 38.94% 51.13% 13.6% 14% -6.24% 16.12%
Capital Expenditure -144.3 -259.2 -259.2 -224.4 -180.5 -132 -103.1 -94 -108 -93 -68 -66
Free Cash Flow 101.6 38 38 40.7 -221.3 152.2 300.8 277.7 217 227 -198 245
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Discounting Cash Flows

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