Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.

WMS (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

"""
    Model: Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Read more: [GitHub Documentation](https://github.com/DiscountingCashFlows/Documentation/blob/main/models-documentation/discounted-free-cash-flow.md#discounted-free-cash-flow-model-source-code)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "%tax_rate": None,
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "exit_ebitda_multiple": None,
        "%ebitda_margin": None,
        "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": None,
        "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": [
            "beta",
            "%risk_free_rate",
            "%market_premium",
            "%tax_rate"
        ]
    }]
})

# WACC Calculation
risk_free_rate = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate")
beta = assumptions.get("beta")
market_premium = assumptions.get("%market_premium")
cost_of_equity = risk_free_rate + beta * market_premium
cost_of_debt = data.get("income:interestExpense / balance:totalDebt")
if cost_of_debt is None:
    # Use the 10-year Treasury yield instead
    cost_of_debt = data.get("treasury:year10")

tax_rate = data.get("income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax")
if tax_rate is None or tax_rate < 0:
    # Fall back to the statutory corporate rate
    tax_rate = data.get("risk:corporateTaxRate")
assumptions.set("%tax_rate", tax_rate)

market_cap = data.get("profile:price * income:weightedAverageShsOut")
debt_weight = data.get(f"balance:totalDebt / ({market_cap} + balance:totalDebt)")
if debt_weight is None:
    # Assume zero leverage if missing
    debt_weight = 0

equity_weight = 1 - debt_weight
wacc = debt_weight * cost_of_debt * (1 - assumptions.get("%tax_rate")) + equity_weight * cost_of_equity

# Set the discount rate to the WACC
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", wacc)

# Compute ratios
data.compute({
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "-1 * flow:capitalExpenditure",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%netIncomeToEbitda": "income:netIncome / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

# Calculate margins
assumptions.set("%ebitda_margin", data.average("%ebitdaMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%ebitda_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", data.average("%operatingCashFlowToEbitda"))
# Limit OCF range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", data.average("%capitalExpenditureToEbitda"))
# Limit CapEx range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", low=0, high="90%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average("%revenueGrowthRate"))
# Limit revenue growth
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Calculate the Enterprise Value and set the exit EBITDA multiple
ev = data.get("profile:mktCap + balance:totalDebt - balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments")
exit_ebitda_multiple = data.get(f"{ev} / income:ebitda")
assumptions.set("exit_ebitda_multiple", exit_ebitda_multiple)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "income:ebitda": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%ebitda_margin')}",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda')}",
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda')}",
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow - computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "flow:operatingCashFlow - flow:freeCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculate the terminal value
exit_multiple = assumptions.get("exit_ebitda_multiple")
end_year = assumptions.get("projection_years")
terminal_value = data.get(f"{exit_multiple} * income:ebitda:{end_year}")

# Discount the terminal value into the present
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / ((1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Projected enterprise value calculation
projected_enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + data.sum(f"discountedFreeCashFlow:1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Equity value calculation
equity_value = projected_enterprise_value + data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments") - data.get("balance:totalDebt")
value_per_share = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": value_per_share,
    "units": "$"
})

fcf_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"flow:freeCashFlow:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")
revenue_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"income:revenue:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [data.get("profile:mktCap"), "Market Capitalization", "$"],
    [ev, "Current Enterprise Value (EV)", "$"],
    [data.get("income:ebitda"), "Current EBITDA", "$"],
    [exit_ebitda_multiple, "Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)", "#"],
    [data.get(f"income:ebitda:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}"), "Terminal EBITDA", "$"],
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value - discounted_terminal_value, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value, "Present Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Present Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [value_per_share, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [cost_of_equity, "Cost of Equity", "%"],
    [equity_weight, "Equity Weight", "%"],
    [cost_of_debt, "Cost of Debt", "%"],
    [debt_weight, "Debt Weight", "%"],
    [revenue_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
    [fcf_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
])

# Render Chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and Forecasted Data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow",
            "income:ebitda",
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "positiveCapitalExpenditure",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
    }
})

# Render Table for Estimated Future Data
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

# Render Historical Table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netIncomeToEbitda": "Net Income to EBITDA",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`)
        
        Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Equity
        
        `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`
        
        The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Debt
        
        `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt`
        
        The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofdebt.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Equity & Debt Weights
        
        `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight`
        
        The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).
        
        ---
        
        ### Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta
        
        Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate
        
        The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%tax_rate": r"""
        ## Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        This is the company’s **effective tax rate**, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).
        
        This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.
        
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` =  
        `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`)  
        + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium
        
        The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"exit_ebitda_multiple": r"""
        ## Exit EBITDA Multiple
        
        The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.
    """,

"%ebitda_margin": r"""
        ## EBITDA Margin
        
        EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure to EBITDA
        
        Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA
        
        Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Model Info

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`) Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt. Read More Cost of Equity `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More Cost of Debt `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt` The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans. Read More Equity & Debt Weights `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight` The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt). Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.	%
↳ Tax Rate Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items). This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible. Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`) + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`	%
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Exit Ebitda Multiple Exit EBITDA Multiple The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.	#
Ebitda Margin EBITDA Margin EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Capital Expenditure To Ebitda Capital Expenditure to EBITDA Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Operating Cash Flow To Ebitda Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#

Results
Market Capitalization	13.31 Bil. USD
Current Enterprise Value (EV)	13.74 Bil. USD
Current EBITDA	869 Mil. USD
Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)	15.82
Terminal EBITDA	865.8 Mil. USD
Terminal Enterprise Value	13.7 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value	8.77 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	1.19 Bil. USD
Present Enterprise Value	9.96 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	1.01 Bil. USD
Total Debt	1.45 Bil. USD
Present Equity Value	9.52 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	77.74 Mil.
Estimated Value per Share	122.5 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.04%
Cost of Equity	9.82%
Equity Weight	90.18%
Cost of Debt	6.33%
Debt Weight	9.82%
Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR	9.49%
Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR	-1.39%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and Forecasted Data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 1289483000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 1257261000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 1330354000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 1384733000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 1673805000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 1982780000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 2769315000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 3071121000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 2874473000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 2904245000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 3179741680, "oy": 3179741680, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 3481371976, "oy": 3481371976, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 3811614922, "oy": 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602561048, "oy": 602561048, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 3.62, "og": 3.62}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 659719989, "oy": 659719989, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 722301027, "oy": 722301027, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 790818503, "oy": 790818503, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 865835546, "oy": 865835546, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "EBITDA", "mappingKey": "income:ebitda", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 91282000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 148683000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 163257000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 201313000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 17074000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 490111000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 553726000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 864459000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 887034000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 840717000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 602561048, "oy": 602561048, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -28.33, "og": -28.33}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 659719989, "oy": 659719989, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 722301027, "oy": 722301027, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 790818503, "oy": 790818503, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 865835546, "oy": 865835546, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "flow:freeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 89869000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 52943000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 95411000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 108266000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 238512000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 373459000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 125805000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 540897000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 534116000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 368547000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 239096224, "oy": 239096224, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -35.12, "og": -35.12}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 261776891, "oy": 261776891, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 286609047, "oy": 286609047, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 313796782, "oy": 313796782, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 343563544, "oy": 343563544, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 9.49, "og": 9.49}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Capital Expenditure", "mappingKey": "positiveCapitalExpenditure", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 44888000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 51296000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 41709000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 43412000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 67677000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 78757000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 149083000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 166913000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 183812000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 212944000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 363464824}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 397943097}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 435691979}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 477021721}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 522272001}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Discounted Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "discountedFreeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-03-31", "y": 89869000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-03-31", "y": 52943000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-03-31", "y": 95411000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-03-31", "y": 108266000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-03-31", "y": 238512000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-03-31", "y": 373459000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-03-31", "y": 125805000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-03-31", "y": 540897000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-03-31", "y": 534116000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-03-31", "y": 368547000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-03-31", "y": 237061710}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-03-31", "y": 237419511}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-03-31", "y": 237719804}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-03-31", "y": 238078598}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-03-31", "y": 238437934}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2026-03-31": 16, "2027-03-31": 17, "2028-03-31": 18, "2029-03-31": 19, "2030-03-31": 20}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-03-31	2027-03-31	2028-03-31	2029-03-31	2030-03-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Mar 31	LTM Feb 24	2026 Mar 31	2027 Mar 31	2028 Mar 31	2029 Mar 31	2030 Mar 31
Revenue	2,904	2,989	3,180	3,481	3,812	4,173	4,569
Revenue Growth Rate	1.04%	2.93%	9.49%	9.49%	9.49%	9.49%	9.49%
EBITDA	840.7	869	602.6	659.7	722.3	790.8	865.8
EBITDA Margin	28.95%	29.07%	18.95%	18.95%	18.95%	18.95%	18.95%
Operating Cash Flow	581.5	820.4	602.6	659.7	722.3	790.8	865.8
Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA	69.17%	94.4%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Capital Expenditure	212.9	243.3	363.5	397.9	435.7	477	522.3
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	25.33%	27.99%	60.32%	60.32%	60.32%	60.32%	60.32%
Free Cash Flow	368.5	577.1	239.1	261.8	286.6	313.8	343.6
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	43.84%	66.41%	39.68%	39.68%	39.68%	39.68%	39.68%
Compounded Discount Rate			0.858%	10.26%	20.57%	31.8%	44.09%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	368.5	577.1	237.1	237.4	237.7	238.1	238.4

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Feb 24	2025 Mar 31	2024 Mar 31	2023 Mar 31	2022 Mar 31	2021 Mar 31	2020 Mar 31	2019 Mar 31	2018 Mar 31	2017 Mar 31	2016 Mar 31
Revenue	2,139	2,989	2,904	2,874	3,071	2,769	1,983	1,674	1,385	1,330	1,257	1,289
Revenue Growth Rate	9.49%	2.93%	1.04%	-6.4%	10.9%	39.67%	18.46%	20.88%	4.09%	5.81%	-2.5%	9.48%
Cost of Revenue	1,439	1,847	1,810	1,729	1,953	1,969	1,293	1,176	1,058	1,028	961.5	1,009
Gross Profit	699.5	1,142	1,094	1,146	1,118	800.4	690.1	497.5	327	302.5	295.8	280.7
Gross Margin	30.66%	38.22%	37.68%	39.87%	36.42%	28.9%	34.8%	29.73%	23.61%	22.74%	23.53%	21.76%
EBITDA	466.1	869	840.7	887	864.5	553.7	490.1	17.07	201.3	163.3	148.7	91.28
EBITDA Margin	18.95%	29.07%	28.95%	30.86%	28.15%	20%	24.72%	1.02%	14.54%	12.27%	11.83%	7.08%
Net Income	221.2	470.7	450.2	509.9	507.1	271.3	224.2	-193.2	77.77	62.01	32.95	20.63
Net Income to EBITDA	-62.82%	54.17%	53.55%	57.49%	58.66%	49%	45.75%	-1,131%	38.63%	37.98%	22.16%	22.6%
Cash from Operating Activities	399	820.4	581.5	717.9	707.8	274.9	452.2	306.2	151.7	137.1	104.2	134.8
Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA	239.8%	94.4%	69.17%	80.94%	81.88%	49.64%	92.27%	1,793%	75.34%	83.99%	70.11%	147.6%
Capital Expenditure	116.7	243.3	212.9	183.8	166.9	149.1	78.76	67.68	43.41	41.71	51.3	44.89
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	60.32%	27.99%	25.33%	20.72%	19.31%	26.92%	16.07%	396.4%	21.56%	25.55%	34.5%	49.18%
Free Cash Flow	282.3	577.1	368.5	534.1	540.9	125.8	373.5	238.5	108.3	95.41	52.94	89.87
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	179.6%	66.41%	43.84%	60.21%	62.57%	22.72%	76.2%	1,397%	53.78%	58.44%	35.61%	98.45%

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Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Cost of Equity

Cost of Debt

Equity & Debt Weights

Tax Rate

Beta

Risk-Free Rate

Market Premium

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Exit EBITDA Multiple

EBITDA Margin

Capital Expenditure to EBITDA

Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA

Historical Years

Projection Years

Results

Historical and Forecasted Data

Estimated Future Data

Historical Data