Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
WMS (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 17.42 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 8.04 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 3.67 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 11.71 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 1.01 Bil. USD
Total Debt 1.45 Bil. USD
Equity Value 11.27 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 77.74 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 145 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.04%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 16.96%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -4.96%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-03-31 2027-03-31 2028-03-31 2029-03-31 2030-03-31 2031-03-31 2032-03-31 2033-03-31 2034-03-31 2035-03-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Mar 31
2027
Mar 31
2028
Mar 31
2029
Mar 31
2030
Mar 31
2031
Mar 31
2032
Mar 31
2033
Mar 31
2034
Mar 31
2035
Mar 31
Revenue 3,180 3,462 3,749 4,036 4,321 4,601 4,870 5,126 5,364 5,580
Revenue Growth Rate 9.49% 8.88% 8.28% 7.67% 7.07% 6.46% 5.85% 5.25% 4.64% 4.04%
Operating Cash Flow 539.3 587.2 635.8 684.5 732.9 780.3 825.9 869.3 909.7 946.4
Operating Cash Flow Margin 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96% 16.96%
Capital Expenditure -157.6 -171.6 -185.8 -200.1 -214.2 -228 -241.4 -254.1 -265.9 -276.6
Capital Expenditure Margin -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96% -4.96%
Free Cash Flow 381.7 415.6 450 484.5 518.7 552.2 584.5 615.2 643.8 669.8
Free Cash Flow Margin 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
Compounded Discount Rate 0.744% 8.84% 17.62% 27.08% 37.29% 48.33% 60.29% 73.18% 87.1% 102.1%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 378.8 381.8 382.5 381.2 377.8 372.3 364.7 355.3 344.1 331.4

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 24
2025
Mar 31
2024
Mar 31
2023
Mar 31
2022
Mar 31
2021
Mar 31
2020
Mar 31
2019
Mar 31
2018
Mar 31
2017
Mar 31
2016
Mar 31
Revenue 2,139 2,989 2,904 2,874 3,071 2,769 1,983 1,674 1,385 1,330 1,257 1,289
Revenue Growth Rate 9.49% 2.93% 1.04% -6.4% 10.9% 39.67% 18.46% 20.88% 4.09% 5.81% -2.5% 9.48%
Cost of Revenue 1,439 1,847 1,810 1,729 1,953 1,969 1,293 1,176 1,058 1,028 961.5 1,009
Gross Profit 699.5 1,142 1,094 1,146 1,118 800.4 690.1 497.5 327 302.5 295.8 280.7
Gross Margin 30.66% 38.22% 37.68% 39.87% 36.42% 28.9% 34.8% 29.73% 23.61% 22.74% 23.53% 21.76%
Operating Income 348.1 682.9 657.4 732.1 719.3 411.9 344.5 -95.35 129.4 88.25 76.33 82.06
Operating Margin 13.58% 22.85% 22.64% 25.47% 23.42% 14.87% 17.38% -5.7% 9.35% 6.63% 6.07% 6.36%
Net Income 221.2 470.7 450.2 509.9 507.1 271.3 224.2 -193.2 77.77 62.01 32.95 20.63
Net Margin 8.14% 15.75% 15.5% 17.74% 16.51% 9.8% 11.31% -11.54% 5.62% 4.66% 2.62% 1.6%
Cash from Operating Activities 399 820.4 581.5 717.9 707.8 274.9 452.2 306.2 151.7 137.1 104.2 134.8
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 16.96% 27.44% 20.02% 24.98% 23.05% 9.93% 22.81% 18.29% 10.95% 10.31% 8.29% 10.45%
Capital Expenditure -116.7 -243.3 -212.9 -183.8 -166.9 -149.1 -78.76 -67.68 -43.41 -41.71 -51.3 -44.89
Free Cash Flow 282.3 577.1 368.5 534.1 540.9 125.8 373.5 238.5 108.3 95.41 52.94 89.87
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Discounting Cash Flows

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