PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
PEP (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Stable Return On Equity

Stable Return on Equity

The stable Return On Equity (ROE) estimated after the last projected period.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 279.7 USD
Book value of equity invested 14.88 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 37.1 USD
Terminal stage EPS 11.51 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 20.65 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.22 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 227.7 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 303.2 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 5.9%
Terminal year's excess return 10.29 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 55.75%
Average historical Payout Ratio 76.2%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 95.52%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.04%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-27 2027-12-27 2028-12-27 2029-12-27 2030-12-27

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 27
LTM
Feb 16
2026
Dec 27
2027
Dec 27
2028
Dec 27
2029
Dec 27
2030
Dec 27
Beginning Book Value 13.14 14.88 14.88 16.54 18.02 19.25 20.14
Ending Book Value 14.88 14.88 16.54 18.02 19.25 20.14 20.65
EPS 6.01 6.01 8.3 9.22 10.05 10.73 11.23
Return on Equity 45.67% 40.38% 55.75% 55.75% 55.75% 55.75% 55.75%
Dividend per Share 5.62 5.69 6.64 7.74 8.82 9.83 10.73
Payout Ratio 93.51% 94.68% 80.06% 83.92% 87.79% 91.65% 95.52%
Retained Earnings 0.39 0.32 1.65 1.48 1.23 0.896 0.504
Equity Cost 0.775 0.877 0.877 0.975 1.06 1.13 1.19
Cost of Equity 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%
Excess Return 5.24 5.13 7.42 8.25 8.98 9.6 10.04
Discounted Excess Return
7.01 7.35 7.57 7.63 7.54

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 16
2025
Dec 27
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Net Income 8,163 8,240 8,240 9,578 9,074 8,910 7,618 7,120 7,314 12,515 4,857 6,329
Total Stockholders Equity 15,935 20,406 20,406 18,041 18,503 17,149 16,043 13,454 14,786 14,518 10,889 11,095
Return on Equity 55.74% 40.38% 45.67% 51.76% 52.91% 55.54% 56.62% 48.15% 50.38% 114.9% 43.78% 53.08%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 6,039 7,801 7,705 7,318 6,811 6,238 5,874 5,568 5,302 5,080 4,501 4,227
Payout Ratio 76.2% 94.68% 93.51% 76.36% 75.11% 69.97% 77.13% 78.21% 72.47% 40.61% 92.69% 67.43%
Shares Outstanding 1,391 1,371 1,371 1,373 1,376 1,380 1,382 1,385 1,399 1,415 1,420 1,428
Earnings per Share 5.87 6.01 6.01 6.98 6.59 6.46 5.51 5.14 5.23 8.84 3.42 4.39
Dividend per Share 4.35 5.69 5.62 5.33 4.95 4.52 4.25 4.02 3.79 3.59 3.17 2.96
Dividend Growth Rate 6.83% 1.25% 5.44% 7.68% 9.51% 6.35% 5.72% 6.07% 5.57% 13.25% 7.09% 7.25%
Book Value 11.49 14.88 14.88 13.14 13.45 12.43 11.61 9.71 10.57 10.26 7.67 7.77
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