Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGLO) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
ACGLO
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGLO (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out Nathan's YouTube Channel

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 302.7 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 137.9 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 56.43 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 194.3 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 1.06 Bil. USD
Total Debt 2.73 Bil. USD
Equity Value 202.8 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 369 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 549.5 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.18%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 34.98%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -0.436%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31 2035-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
2035
Dec 31
Revenue 16,491 18,531 20,635 22,766 24,884 26,943 28,898 30,698 32,295 33,645
Revenue Growth Rate 13.4% 12.38% 11.35% 10.33% 9.3% 8.28% 7.25% 6.23% 5.2% 4.18%
Operating Cash Flow 5,768 6,482 7,218 7,963 8,704 9,425 10,108 10,738 11,297 11,769
Operating Cash Flow Margin 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98% 34.98%
Capital Expenditure -71.9 -80.8 -89.97 -99.26 -108.5 -117.5 -126 -133.8 -140.8 -146.7
Capital Expenditure Margin -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436% -0.436%
Free Cash Flow 5,697 6,401 7,128 7,864 8,596 9,307 9,982 10,604 11,156 11,622
Free Cash Flow Margin 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54% 34.54%
Compounded Discount Rate 7.18% 15.95% 25.46% 35.72% 46.83% 58.84% 71.87% 85.93% 101.1% 117.6%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 5,315 5,521 5,682 5,794 5,854 5,860 5,808 5,703 5,547 5,341

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 12
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Revenue 9,842 14,542 14,542 16,930 13,294 9,657 8,924 8,292 6,782 5,474 5,369 4,452
Revenue Growth Rate 13.4% 0% -14.11% 27.35% 37.66% 8.21% 7.62% 22.27% 23.88% 1.96% 20.61% 11.93%
Cost of Revenue 6,472 9,511 9,511 10,993 8,558 6,768 5,888 5,694 3,974 3,695 3,743 2,853
Gross Profit 3,370 5,031 5,031 5,937 4,736 2,889 3,036 2,597 2,807 1,779 1,626 1,599
Gross Margin 34.11% 34.6% 34.6% 35.07% 35.63% 29.92% 34.02% 31.32% 41.4% 32.5% 30.29% 35.91%
Operating Income 2,123 3,653 3,653 4,474 3,107 1,372 1,737 1,414 1,723 796.1 615 807.1
Operating Margin 20.03% 25.12% 25.12% 26.43% 23.37% 14.21% 19.46% 17.05% 25.41% 14.54% 11.45% 18.13%
Net Income 2,391 4,399 4,399 4,312 4,443 1,476 2,157 1,406 1,636 758 619.3 692.7
Net Margin 21.9% 30.25% 30.25% 25.47% 33.42% 15.28% 24.17% 16.95% 24.13% 13.85% 11.53% 15.56%
Cash from Operating Activities 3,501 6,341
6,673 5,749 3,815 3,428 2,887 2,048 1,559 1,113 1,397
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 34.98% 43.6%
39.42% 43.25% 39.51% 38.41% 34.81% 30.21% 28.48% 20.72% 31.37%
Capital Expenditure -38.77 -46
-51 -52 -51.67 -41.39 -39.87 -37.84 -29.81 -22.84 -15.3
Free Cash Flow 3,462 6,295
6,622 5,697 3,764 3,386 2,847 2,011 1,530 1,090 1,381
discounting cash flows home logo

Discounting Cash Flows

Are you finding our services helpful? Review us on trustpilot logo Trustpilot
Have a question? Contact us
Want to become our sponsor?
Check out our Affiliate Program