Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGLO) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
ACGLO (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 304.4 USD
Book value of equity invested 55.55 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 23.95 USD
Terminal stage EPS 11.9 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 77.62 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 5.02 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 224.8 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 307.7 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.47%
Terminal year's excess return 6.87 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 15.33%
Average historical Payout Ratio 30.55%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 72.34%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 49.78 55.89 55.89 61.13 66.07 70.56 74.46
Ending Book Value 55.89 55.55 61.13 66.07 70.56 74.46 77.62
EPS 11.47 9.99 8.57 9.37 10.13 10.82 11.41
Return on Equity 23.49% 18.09% 15.33% 15.33% 15.33% 15.33% 15.33%
Dividend per Share 1.36 1.36 3.33 4.43 5.63 6.92 8.26
Payout Ratio 11.86% 13.61% 38.91% 47.27% 55.63% 63.98% 72.34%
Retained Earnings 10.11 8.63 5.23 4.94 4.49 3.9 3.16
Equity Cost 3.22 3.62 3.62 3.96 4.28 4.57 4.82
Cost of Equity 6.47% 6.47% 6.47% 6.47% 6.47% 6.47% 6.47%
Excess Return 8.25 6.37 4.95 5.41 5.85 6.25 6.59
Discounted Excess Return
4.65 4.78 4.85 4.86 4.82

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 1,982 3,766 4,312 4,443 1,476 2,157 1,406 1,636 758 619.3 692.7 537.7
Total Stockholders Equity 13,170 21,545 20,820 18,353 12,910 13,546 13,106 11,497 9,440 9,197 8,254 6,205
Return on Equity 15.33% 18.09% 23.49% 34.41% 10.9% 16.46% 12.22% 17.33% 8.24% 7.5% 11.16% 8.77%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 526.8 527.5 506.6 501.4 501.3 532.8 548.2 546.5 549.9
Payout Ratio 32.83% 13.61% 11.86% 11.39% 34.87% 25.47% 40.24% 34.26% 72.73% 38.91% 38.91% 38.91%
Shares Outstanding 384.6 387.8 372.5 368.7 368.6 391.7 403.1 401.8 404.3 404.1 362.4 365.4
Earnings per Share 5.14 9.99 11.47 11.94 3.9 5.34 3.38 3.97 1.87 1.4 1.83 1.41
Dividend per Share 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36
Dividend Growth Rate
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Book Value 34.35 55.55 55.89 49.78 35.02 34.58 32.52 28.61 23.35 22.76 22.78 16.98
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Discounting Cash Flows

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