The AES Corporation (AES) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
The AES Corporation
AES (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 2.09 USD
Book value of equity invested 4.88 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -0.5 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.348 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 5.83 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.487 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -2.28 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -3.41 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.36%
Terminal year's excess return -0.139 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 5.98%
Average historical Payout Ratio 104.4%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 28.21%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.29%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 3.72 5.16 5.16 5.19 5.28 5.41 5.59
Ending Book Value 5.16 4.88 5.19 5.28 5.41 5.59 5.83
EPS 2.38 1.85 0.308 0.31 0.315 0.323 0.334
Return on Equity 67.48% 33.56% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98% 5.98%
Dividend per Share 0.69 0.697 0.275 0.229 0.185 0.14 0.094
Payout Ratio 28.99% 37.68% 89.15% 73.92% 58.68% 43.45% 28.21%
Retained Earnings 1.69 1.15 0.033 0.081 0.13 0.183 0.24
Equity Cost 0.311 0.431 0.431 0.434 0.441 0.452 0.467
Cost of Equity 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36% 8.36%
Excess Return 2.07 1.42 -0.123 -0.124 -0.126 -0.129 -0.133
Discounted Excess Return
-0.113 -0.105 -0.099 -0.093 -0.089

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 160.3 1,223 1,679 249 -546 -409 46 303 1,203 -1,161 -1,130 306
Total Stockholders Equity 2,916 3,468 3,644 2,488 2,437 2,798 2,634 2,996 3,208 2,465 2,794 3,149
Return on Equity 5.98% 33.56% 67.48% 10.22% -19.51% -15.53% 1.54% 9.45% 48.8% -41.55% -35.88% 7.16%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 395.1 495.6 487.1 444.2 420.8 397 439.3 367.6 422.7 325.2 280.1 266.1
Payout Ratio 104.4% 37.68% 28.99% 179.5% -77.07% -97.1% 885.6% 121.3% 35.14% -28.07% -24.72% 86.96%
Shares Outstanding 694.9 711 706 669 665.9 659.5 766.7 673.3 812.8 677.5 636.5 665.2
Earnings per Share 0.193 1.85 2.38 0.37 -0.82 -0.62 0.065 0.45 1.48 -1.71 -1.78 0.46
Dividend per Share 0.568 0.697 0.69 0.664 0.632 0.602 0.573 0.546 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.4
Dividend Growth Rate 14.31% 1.01% 3.92% 5.06% 4.98% 5.06% 4.95% 5% 8.33% 9.09% 10% 100%
Book Value 4.21 4.88 5.16 3.72 3.66 4.24 3.44 4.45 3.95 3.64 4.39 4.73
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Discounting Cash Flows

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