American Financial Group, Inc. (AFGC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
American Financial Group, Inc.
AFGC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 18.925 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 235.8 USD
Book value of equity invested 52.41 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 20.33 USD
Terminal stage EPS 11.63 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 77.89 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 5.55 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 163.1 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 230.1 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 7.12%
Terminal year's excess return 6.08 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 14.93%
Average historical Payout Ratio 12.1%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 69.99%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 50.27 53.23 53.23 59.3 65.03 70.19 74.55
Ending Book Value 53.23 52.41 59.3 65.03 70.19 74.55 77.89
EPS 10.57 9.53 7.95 8.85 9.71 10.48 11.13
Return on Equity 20.83% 17.89% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93%
Dividend per Share 1.28 1.28 1.88 3.12 4.55 6.12 7.79
Payout Ratio 12.11% 13.43% 23.67% 35.25% 46.83% 58.41% 69.99%
Retained Earnings 9.29 8.25 6.07 5.73 5.16 4.36 3.34
Equity Cost 3.58 3.79 3.79 4.22 4.63 5.0 5.31
Cost of Equity 7.12% 7.12% 7.12% 7.12% 7.12% 7.12% 7.12%
Excess Return 6.99 5.74 4.16 4.63 5.08 5.48 5.82
Discounted Excess Return
3.88 4.03 4.13 4.16 4.13

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 741.1 799 887 852 898 1,081 732 897 530 475 649 352
Total Stockholders Equity 5,004 4,392 4,466 4,258 4,052 5,012 6,789 6,269 4,970 5,330 4,916 4,592
Return on Equity 14.93% 17.89% 20.83% 21.03% 17.92% 15.92% 11.68% 18.05% 9.94% 9.66% 14.13% 7.22%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 108.2 107.3 107.4 108.4 108.9 108.9
Payout Ratio 18.41% 13.43% 12.11% 12.72% 12.13% 10.08% 23.67% 23.67% 23.67% 23.67% 23.67% 23.67%
Shares Outstanding 86.62 83.8 83.9 84.7 85.1 85.1 88.7 89.9 89 88.28 86.9 87.47
Earnings per Share 8.59 9.53 10.57 10.06 10.55 12.7 8.25 9.98 5.96 5.38 7.47 4.02
Dividend per Share 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
Dividend Growth Rate
0% 0% 0% 0%
Book Value 57.63 52.41 53.23 50.27 47.61 58.9 76.54 69.73 55.84 60.38 56.57 52.5
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Discounting Cash Flows

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