Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
AMBP (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value -1.51 Thou. USD
Book value of equity invested -0.385 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -52.59 USD
Terminal stage EPS -51.39 USD
Terminal stage Book Value -68.52 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost -4.54 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -1.46 Thou. USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -2.01 Thou. USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.62%
Terminal year's excess return -46.85 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 75%
Average historical Payout Ratio -787%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 94.27%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.3%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 0.167 -0.238 -0.238 -1.5 -7.53 -27.78 -65.69
Ending Book Value -0.238 -0.385 -1.5 -7.53 -27.78 -65.69 -68.52
EPS -0.045 -0.035 -0.178 -1.13 -5.65 -20.83 -49.27
Return on Equity -3% -2.82% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Dividend per Share 0.4 0.4 1.09 4.9 14.59 17.08 -46.44
Payout Ratio -885% -1,143% -610.8% -434.5% -258.3% -82% 94.27%
Retained Earnings -0.445 -0.435 -1.27 -6.03 -20.24 -37.91 -2.82
Equity Cost 0.011 -0.016 -0.016 -0.1 -0.499 -1.84 -4.35
Cost of Equity 6.62% 6.62% 6.62% 6.62% 6.62% 6.62% 6.62%
Excess Return -0.056 -0.019 -0.162 -1.03 -5.15 -18.99 -44.92
Discounted Excess Return
-0.152 -0.905 -4.25 -14.69 -32.59

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income -3.25 4 -3 -50 237 -210 111 -40 -75
Total Stockholders Equity 83.62 -230 -142 100 455 286 48 12 140
Return on Equity 75% -2.82% -3% -10.99% 82.87% -437.5% 925% -28.57% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 239.1 239.1 239.1 239
Payout Ratio -658.9% -1,143% -885% -333.3% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8% -610.8%
Shares Outstanding 525.6 597.7 597.7 597.6 601 538.8 65.62 603.3 603.3
Earnings per Share 0.163 -0.035 -0.045 -0.12 0.39 -0.39 1.69 -0.066 -0.12
Dividend per Share 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dividend Growth Rate
0% 0%
Book Value 0.227 -0.385 -0.238 0.167 0.757 0.531 0.731 0.02 0.232
discounting cash flows home logo

Discounting Cash Flows

Are you finding our services helpful? Review us on trustpilot logo Trustpilot
Have a question? Contact us