Amcor plc (AMCR) Discounted Future Market Cap

Amcor plc

AMCR (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
Amcor plc Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin", data.average(f"%netMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%net_income_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("income:revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("profile:price"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	11.35 USD
Estimated net income	1.07 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	25.53 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	18.04 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	1.59 Bil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	0.085 USD
Market Price	8.75 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	23.89

Historical and forecasted data

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-06-30", "y": 9474348697}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-06-30", "y": 9092132043}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-06-30", "y": 9319100000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-06-30", "y": 9458000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-06-30", "y": 12468000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-06-30", "y": 12861000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-06-30", "y": 14544000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-06-30", "y": 14694000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-06-30", "y": 13640000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-06-30", "y": 15009000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-06-30", "y": 15917044500, "oy": 15917044500, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-06-30", "y": 16880025692, "oy": 16880025692, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-06-30", "y": 17901267246, "oy": 17901267246, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-06-30", "y": 18984293915, "oy": 18984293915, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-06-30", "y": 20132843696, "oy": 20132843696, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-06-30", "y": 245474000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-06-30", "y": 596418000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-06-30", "y": 719584000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-06-30", "y": 430200000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-06-30", "y": 612000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-06-30", "y": 939000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-06-30", "y": 805000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-06-30", "y": 1048000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-06-30", "y": 730000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-06-30", "y": 511000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-06-30", "y": 845035892, "oy": 845035892, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 65.37, "og": 65.37}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-06-30", "y": 896160564, "oy": 896160564, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-06-30", "y": 950378278, "oy": 950378278, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-06-30", "y": 1007876163, "oy": 1007876163, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-06-30", "y": 1068852671, "oy": 1068852671, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 6.05, "og": 6.05}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-06-30": 38, "2027-06-30": 39, "2028-06-30": 40, "2029-06-30": 41, "2030-06-30": 42}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-06-30	2027-06-30	2028-06-30	2029-06-30	2030-06-30

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Jun 30	LTM Jan 14	2026 Jun 30	2027 Jun 30	2028 Jun 30	2029 Jun 30	2030 Jun 30
Revenue	15,009	17,401	15,917	16,880	17,901	18,984	20,133
Revenue Growth Rate	10.04%	15.94%	6.05%	6.05%	6.05%	6.05%	6.05%
Net Income	511	582	845	896.2	950.4	1,008	1,069

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jun 30

LTM
Jan 14

2026
Jun 30

2027
Jun 30

2028
Jun 30

2029
Jun 30

2030
Jun 30

Revenue

15,009

17,401

15,917

16,880

17,901

18,984

20,133

Revenue Growth Rate

10.04%

15.94%

6.05%

Net Income

511

582

845

896.2

950.4

1,008

1,069

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 14	2025 Jun 30	2024 Jun 30	2023 Jun 30	2022 Jun 30	2021 Jun 30	2020 Jun 30	2019 Jun 30	2018 Jun 30	2017 Jun 30	2016 Jun 30
Revenue	12,542	17,401	15,009	13,640	14,694	14,544	12,861	12,468	9,458	9,319	9,092	9,474
Cost of Revenue	10,066	14,102	12,175	10,928	11,969	11,724	10,129	9,932	7,659	7,462	7,182	7,468
Gross Profit	2,475	3,299	2,834	2,712	2,725	2,820	2,732	2,536	1,799	1,857	1,910	2,006
Gross Margin	19.85%	18.96%	18.88%	19.88%	18.54%	19.39%	21.24%	20.34%	19.02%	19.92%	21.01%	21.17%
Operating Income	1,049	1,158	1,009	1,214	1,508	1,239	1,321	994	792	993.9	842.3	468.8
Operating Margin	8.41%	6.65%	6.72%	8.9%	10.26%	8.52%	10.27%	7.97%	8.37%	10.67%	9.26%	4.95%
Net Income	656.2	582	511	730	1,048	805	939	612	430.2	719.6	596.4	245.5
Net Margin	5.31%	3.35%	3.4%	5.35%	7.13%	5.54%	7.3%	4.91%	4.55%	7.72%	6.56%	2.59%

Historical Growth Rates

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Jan 14	2025 Jun 30	2024 Jun 30	2023 Jun 30	2022 Jun 30	2021 Jun 30	2020 Jun 30	2019 Jun 30	2018 Jun 30	2017 Jun 30	2016 Jun 30
Revenue	12,542	17,401	15,009	13,640	14,694	14,544	12,861	12,468	9,458	9,319	9,092	9,474
Revenue Growth Rate	6.05%	15.94%	10.04%	-7.17%	1.03%	13.09%	3.15%	31.82%	1.49%	2.5%	-4.03%	-1.3%
Net Income	656.2	582	511	730	1,048	805	939	612	430.2	719.6	596.4	245.5
Net Margin	5.31%	3.35%	3.4%	5.35%	7.13%	5.54%	7.3%	4.91%	4.55%	7.72%	6.56%	2.59%
Net Income Growth Rate	11.34%	13.89%	-30%	-30.34%	30.19%	-14.27%	53.43%	42.26%	-40.22%	20.65%	143%	-63.87%
Stockholders Equity	4,822	11,718	11,728	3,881	4,026	4,082	4,764	4,626	5,609	1,015	800.1	788.3
Equity Growth Rate	54.81%	-0.085%	202.2%	-3.6%	-1.37%	-14.32%	2.98%	-17.53%	452.4%	26.92%	1.49%	-46.16%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	8.39%	3.32%	2.74%	8.52%	10.77%	7.84%	8.64%	6.52%	4.71%	21.46%	13.52%	4.25%
After-tax Operating Income	806.6	933.4	800.4	994.9	1,275	905.6	1,037	764.8	566.5	795.3	606.5	193.1
Income Tax Rate	25.48%	19.39%	20.67%	18.05%	15.43%	26.91%	21.53%	23.06%	28.48%	19.98%	27.99%	58.82%
Invested Capital	12,812	28,137	29,252	11,675	11,838	11,548	11,993	11,725	12,022	3,706	4,488	4,547