Amcor plc (AMCR) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Amcor plc
AMCR (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 21.65 USD
Book value of equity invested 2.67 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 2.78 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.949 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 2.89 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.214 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 16.2 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 23.16 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 7.41%
Terminal year's excess return 0.735 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 32.89%
Average historical Payout Ratio 108.8%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 87.11%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 2.74 2.7 2.7 2.66 2.66 2.69 2.77
Ending Book Value 2.7 2.67 2.66 2.66 2.69 2.77 2.89
EPS 0.51 0.31 0.887 0.874 0.874 0.886 0.911
Return on Equity 18.13% 11.67% 32.89% 32.89% 32.89% 32.89% 32.89%
Dividend per Share 0.502 0.508 0.927 0.875 0.837 0.81 0.793
Payout Ratio 98.43% 163.9% 104.5% 100.1% 95.79% 91.45% 87.11%
Retained Earnings 0.008 -0.198 -0.04 -0.001 0.037 0.076 0.117
Equity Cost 0.203 0.2 0.2 0.197 0.197 0.2 0.205
Cost of Equity 7.41% 7.41% 7.41% 7.41% 7.41% 7.41% 7.41%
Excess Return 0.307 0.11 0.687 0.677 0.677 0.686 0.705
Discounted Excess Return
0.64 0.587 0.546 0.515 0.493

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 659.8 453 730 1,048 805 939 612 430.2 719.6 596.4 245.5 679.4
Total Stockholders Equity 3,173 3,851 3,881 4,026 4,082 4,764 4,626 5,609 1,015 800.1 788.3 1,464
Return on Equity 32.89% 11.67% 18.13% 25.67% 16.9% 20.3% 10.91% 42.36% 89.94% 75.66% 16.76% 33.48%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 666.4 733 722.4 722.3 729.7 732.1 739.2 811.6 634.6 627.4 594.3 283.5
Payout Ratio 108.8% 163.9% 98.43% 69.3% 90.94% 78.67% 121.6% 188% 71.13% 83.85% 196.7% 34.56%
Shares Outstanding 1,474 1,443 1,439 1,468 1,514 1,551 1,600 1,439 1,439 1,439 1,439 1,439
Earnings per Share 0.478 0.31 0.51 0.71 0.53 0.6 0.38 0.3 0.62 0.52 0.21 0.57
Dividend per Share 0.452 0.508 0.502 0.492 0.482 0.472 0.462 0.564 0.441 0.436 0.413 0.197
Dividend Growth Rate 13.57% 1.2% 2.03% 2.08% 2.12% 2.17% -18.09% 27.89% 1.15% 5.57% 109.6%
Book Value 2.14 2.67 2.7 2.74 2.7 3.07 2.89 3.9 0.706 0.556 0.548 1.02
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Discounting Cash Flows

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