Amcor plc (AMCR) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
AMCR
Amcor plc
AMCR (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 43.9 USD
Book value of equity invested 7.37 USD
Next year's estimated book value 7.57 USD
Present value of future excess returns 36.53 USD
Excess Return per share 1.71 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 7.2%
Average historical Return on Equity 30.43%
Average historical Payout Ratio 163.3%
Payout Ratio used 91.78%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.18%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jun 30
LTM
Jan 14
2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
Beginning Book Value 2.7 7.38 7.38 7.57 7.75 7.95 8.15
Ending Book Value 7.38 7.37 7.57 7.75 7.95 8.15 8.35
EPS 0.32 0.085 2.25 2.3 2.36 2.42 2.48
Return on Equity 13.17% 4.96% 30.43% 30.43% 30.43% 30.43% 30.43%
Dividend per Share 0.512 0.512 2.06 2.11 2.17 2.22 2.28
Retained Earnings -0.192 -0.426 0.185 0.189 0.194 0.199 0.204
Equity Cost per Share 0.194 0.531 0.531 0.544 0.558 0.572 0.586
Cost of Equity 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%
Excess Return 0.126 -0.446 1.71 1.76 1.8 1.85 1.89

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 14
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Net Income 656.2 582 511 730 1,048 805 939 612 430.2 719.6 596.4 245.5
Total Equity 4,822 11,718 11,728 3,881 4,026 4,082 4,764 4,626 5,609 1,015 800.1 788.3
Return on Equity 30.43% 4.96% 13.17% 18.13% 25.67% 16.9% 20.3% 10.91% 42.36% 89.94% 75.66% 16.76%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 721.9 813.6 813.6 722.4 722.3 729.7 732.1 739.2 811.6 634.6 627.4 594.3
Payout Ratio 163.3% 598.8% 160% 98.43% 69.3% 90.94% 78.67% 121.6% 188% 110.2% 83.85% 196.7%
Shares Outstanding 1,501 1,589 1,589 1,439 1,468 1,514 1,551 1,600 1,439 1,439 1,439 1,439
EPS 0.415 0.085 0.32 0.51 0.71 0.53 0.6 0.38 0.3 0.4 0.52 0.21
Dividend per Share 0.481 0.512 0.512 0.502 0.492 0.482 0.472 0.462 0.564 0.441 0.436 0.413
Book Value 3.14 7.37 7.38 2.7 2.74 2.7 3.07 2.89 3.9 0.706 0.556 0.548
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Discounting Cash Flows

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