Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.
AMG (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 285.3 USD
Book value of equity invested 109.2 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 34.04 USD
Terminal stage EPS 22.68 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 139.9 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 12.5 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 142.1 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 218 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.93%
Terminal year's excess return 10.18 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 16.21%
Average historical Payout Ratio 56.07%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 73.72%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.26%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 102.2 107.6 107.6 114.6 121.5 128.0 134.2
Ending Book Value 107.6 109.2 114.6 121.5 128.0 134.2 139.9
EPS 16.45 14.67 17.44 18.58 19.69 20.75 21.76
Return on Equity 14.26% 12.98% 16.21% 16.21% 16.21% 16.21% 16.21%
Dividend per Share 0.04 0.04 10.39 11.73 13.12 14.57 16.04
Payout Ratio 0.243% 0.273% 59.6% 63.13% 66.66% 70.19% 73.72%
Retained Earnings 16.41 14.63 7.04 6.85 6.56 6.19 5.72
Equity Cost 9.13 9.61 9.61 10.24 10.85 11.44 11.99
Cost of Equity 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93% 8.93%
Excess Return 7.32 5.06 7.83 8.34 8.84 9.32 9.77
Discounted Excess Return
7.19 7.03 6.84 6.62 6.37

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 496.7 434.1 511.6 672.9 1,146 565.7 202.2 15.7 243.6 689.5 472.8 509.5
Total Stockholders Equity 3,236 3,188 3,345 3,588 3,230 2,786 2,780 2,938 3,457 3,822 3,620 2,837
Return on Equity 16.21% 12.98% 14.26% 20.83% 41.12% 20.35% 6.88% 0.454% 6.37% 19.05% 16.66% 19.39%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 19.03 1.17 1.24 1.4 1.54 1.66 16.27 64.64 64.32
Payout Ratio 57.03% 0.273% 0.243% 0.209% 0.134% 0.293% 8.06% 412.9% 26.43% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6%
Shares Outstanding 44.59 29.2 31.1 35.1 38.5 41.5 46.5 50.5 53.6 56 54.2 54.3
Earnings per Share 12.13 14.67 16.45 19.18 29.77 13.65 4.34 0.31 4.54 12.3 8.73 9.49
Dividend per Share 0.379 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.35 1.28 1.2
Dividend Growth Rate -51.52% 0% 0% 0% 0% -88.57% -72.66% 6.67%
Book Value 76.34 109.2 107.6 102.2 83.9 67.14 59.78 58.17 64.5 68.25 66.78 52.25
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Discounting Cash Flows

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