Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Amgen Inc.
AMGN (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 416.1 USD
Book value of equity invested 11.54 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 35.49 USD
Terminal stage EPS 11.93 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 17.68 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.13 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 369.1 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 503 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.39%
Terminal year's excess return 10.81 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 67.51%
Average historical Payout Ratio 71.23%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 93.72%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 11.65 10.86 10.86 12.64 14.33 15.81 16.96
Ending Book Value 10.86 11.54 12.64 14.33 15.81 16.96 17.68
EPS 7.56 11.04 7.33 8.54 9.67 10.67 11.45
Return on Equity 65.63% 101% 67.51% 67.51% 67.51% 67.51% 67.51%
Dividend per Share 9.0 9.26 5.55 6.85 8.2 9.52 10.73
Payout Ratio 119% 83.88% 75.73% 80.23% 84.72% 89.22% 93.72%
Retained Earnings -1.44 1.78 1.78 1.69 1.48 1.15 0.719
Equity Cost 0.744 0.694 0.694 0.808 0.915 1.01 1.08
Cost of Equity 6.39% 6.39% 6.39% 6.39% 6.39% 6.39% 6.39%
Excess Return 6.82 10.35 6.64 7.73 8.76 9.66 10.37
Discounted Excess Return
6.24 6.83 7.27 7.54 7.61

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 6,302 5,933 4,090 6,717 6,552 5,893 7,264 7,842 8,394 1,979 7,722 6,939
Total Stockholders Equity 13,042 6,207 5,877 6,232 3,661 6,700 9,409 9,673 12,500 25,241 29,875 28,083
Return on Equity 67.52% 101% 65.63% 183.5% 97.79% 62.63% 75.1% 62.74% 33.26% 6.62% 27.5% 26.92%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 3,827 4,982 4,869 4,558 4,175 4,013 3,750 3,509 3,490 3,363 2,992 2,395
Payout Ratio 71.22% 83.88% 119% 67.83% 63.71% 68.09% 51.61% 44.75% 41.57% 169.7% 38.76% 34.54%
Shares Outstanding 619.2 538 541 535 538 570 586 605 661 731 748 758
Earnings per Share 10.36 11.04 7.56 12.56 12.18 10.34 12.4 12.96 12.7 2.71 10.32 9.15
Dividend per Share 6.44 9.26 9.0 8.52 7.76 7.04 6.4 5.8 5.28 4.6 4 3.16
Dividend Growth Rate 13.15% 2.89% 5.63% 9.79% 10.23% 10% 10.34% 9.85% 14.78% 15% 26.58% 29.51%
Book Value 19.55 11.54 10.86 11.65 6.8 11.75 16.06 15.99 18.91 34.53 39.94 37.05
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Discounting Cash Flows

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